Mining-induced fracture of overburden strata is intimately related to underground water disasters in coal mining. In this work, we develop an analytical model that uses the probability integral method to calculate the subsidence of the subsurface and the overburden strata. In the developed model, according to the failure characteristics of the mining-induced strata, the horizontal deformation of the strata is expressed by the tensile rate of the elastic plate’s neutral plane to reflect the degree of fracture initiation and expansion. The distribution of the water-flowing fractured zone (WFZ) in the overburden strata is calculated by substituting the probability integral function of overburden strata movement into the equation of layer tensile rate. The panel 31071 in Peigou coal mine is taken as a case study, and the height of the water-flowing fractured zone (H_WFZ) is determined by the proposed method. Conventional empirical methods and the proposed method are used to predict H_WFZ in panels with mining schemes, and the results show that the model is particularly advantageous for inclined coal seam mining where the inclined mining size gradually increases and the coal seam burial depth gradually decreases. In such kind of situations, the overburden strata movement and deformation intensify and the mining fracture develops further with the progress of mining, a feature considered poorly by conventional empirical methods but well represented in the proposed method.

中文翻译：

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基于上覆地层运动变形的采动裂缝计算方法

上覆地层的开采破裂与煤矿开采中的地下水灾害密切相关。在这项工作中，我们开发了一个分析模型，该模型使用概率积分方法来计算地下和上覆地层的沉降。在开发的模型中，根据采动地层的破坏特征，将地层的水平变形量用弹性板中性面的拉伸率来表示，以反映裂缝的起裂和扩展程度。将上覆地层运动的概率积分函数代入地层拉伸速率方程，计算出上覆地层中水流裂隙带(WFZ)的分布。以北沟煤矿31071面板为例，H _WFZ ) 由所提出的方法确定。将常规经验方法和提出的方法用于预测具有开采方案的面板中的H _WFZ，结果表明该模型特别有利于倾斜开采规模逐渐增大，煤层埋深逐渐减小的倾斜煤层开采。在这种情况下，随着开采的进行，上覆地层运动和变形加剧，开采裂缝进一步发展，这是传统经验方法考虑不足但在所提出的方法中很好地体现的特征。