Field sandbur (Cenchrus spinifex Cav.) is an annual grass native to North America that has spread widely in South America, Europe, Asia, Australia and other regions, reducing crop and grassland productivity. In recent decades, global climate change and human activity have been linked to the spread of C. spinifex and its impact on ecosystem and biodiversity. In order to characterize the role of climate change on this trend and highlight regions of high invasion risk, we used global distribution data and maximum entropy models (MaxEnt) to analyze suitable habitats based on four global climate models and two representative concentration pathways under different climate scenarios. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis method was also used to further verify the prediction accuracy of the model, which was statistically significant (AUC = 0.921). Climatically suitable areas of C. spinifex at present climate conditions were located at six continents including central South America, southern parts of North America and Africa, most of Mediterranean coastal European regions, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Future climate conditions may promote C. spinifex expansion into coastal regions. Meanwhile, C. spinifex in the northern hemisphere were expected to spread further southward (20-55°N; 30-55°S) compared to present potential geographical distribution. The suitable habitat area of C. spinifex would be slightly reduced in 2050 and 2070. Seasonal precipitation, precipitation of driest quarter (bio15, bio17) and mean temperature of warmest and coldest quarter (bio10, bio11) could be the major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of C. spinifex. Preventing the spread of C. spinifex in the future will require strict phytosanitary measures to reduce colonization of new regions, such as Japan, India, Russia, and Thailand. Our research provides a foundation to focus future management efforts and prioritize area of greatest ecological concern.

田间沙棘（Cenchrus spinifex Cav.）是一种原产于北美洲的一年生草本植物，广泛分布于南美洲、欧洲、亚洲、澳大利亚等地区，降低了作物和草地的生产力。近几十年来，全球气候变化和人类活动已与刺棘球蚴的传播有关及其对生态系统和生物多样性的影响。为了表征气候变化对这一趋势的作用并突出高入侵风险区域，我们使用全球分布数据和最大熵模型（MaxEnt）基于四种全球气候模型和两种具有代表性的不同气候下的浓度途径来分析适宜的栖息地。场景。还采用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析方法进一步验证了模型的预测准确性，具有统计学意义（AUC=0.921）。C. spinifex气候适宜的区域目前气候条件分布在南美洲中部、北美洲南部和非洲、地中海沿岸欧洲大部分地区、亚洲、澳大利亚和新西兰等六大洲。未来的气候条件可能会促进C. spinifex扩展到沿海地区。与此同时，与目前的潜在地理分布相比，北半球的刺棘刺螟预计将进一步向南传播（20-55°N；30-55°S）。C. spinifex的适宜栖息地2050 年和 2070 年将略有减少。季节性降水、最干旱季（bio15、bio17）的降水和最暖和最冷季的平均温度（bio10、bio11）可能是影响C. spinifex潜在分布的主要环境变量。未来防止刺棘刺蝇的传播将需要采取严格的植物检疫措施，以减少新地区的殖民化，例如日本、印度、俄罗斯和泰国。我们的研究为重点关注未来的管理工作和优先考虑最受生态关注的领域奠定了基础。