ABSTRACT

The article analyses district candidate selections as an arena for intra-party competition. To investigate what spurs or hampers contested races, we focus on Germany. Relying on data from the Bundestag election in 2017, the first part of our paper looks at factors that statistically stimulate rivalry at the nomination event. Subsequently, we explore the ‘secret garden’ of preselection by drawing on interviews to examine whether intra-party competition might be muted prior to the selection conferences. A key determinant for competitive nominations is a vacant candidacy rather than the chance of winning the district or the selection mode. Moreover, the involvement of several regional party units lowers competition. Interestingly, there would be more contested nominations if it were up to the nominating selectorates. However, things look somewhat different regarding the local party leadership: In part, ‘coronations’ are caused by early withdrawals of aspirants due to the leadership’s influence as steering agent.

摘要

文章将选区候选人的选择作为党内竞争的舞台进行了分析。为了调查是什么刺激或阻碍了有争议的比赛，我们将重点放在德国。根据 2017 年联邦议院选举的数据，我们论文的第一部分着眼于在统计上刺激提名事件竞争的因素。随后，我们通过访谈来探索预选的“秘密花园”，以检验党内竞争是否可能在选拔会议之前被削弱。竞争性提名的一个关键决定因素是候选人空缺，而不是赢得选区或选拔模式的机会。此外，几个地方党单位的参与降低了竞争。有趣的是，如果由提名选择者决定，将会有更多有争议的提名。然而，