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Monte Carlo Analysis-Based CapEx Uncertainty Estimation of New Technologies: The Case of Photochemical Lamps
Organic Process Research & Development ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-20 , DOI: 10.1021/acs.oprd.1c00245
Levente L. Simon 1 , Michael Dieckmann 1 , Alan Robinson 2 , Thomas Vent-Schmidt 1 , Dominique Marantelli 1 , Ralf Kohlbrenner 1 , Alexandre Saint-Dizier 1 , Denis Gribkov 1 , Jean-Philippe Krieger 1
Affiliation  

The purpose of this paper is twofold: it presents recent innovation activities related to the implementation of LED-based photochemical reaction technology at kilolab (20 L) and production (1000 L) scales at Syngenta Crop Protection AG in Münchwilen, Switzerland, and investigates the capital expenditure (CapEx) uncertainty estimation of photochemical lamps using Monte Carlo analysis. It was found that for the reaction system considered in this paper, depending on the photon rate measurement method—actinometry or radiometry—the CapEx uncertainty is expected to be within 15–30% at two standard deviations.

中文翻译:

基于蒙特卡罗分析的新技术资本支出不确定性估计:光化学灯案例

本文的目的有两个:它介绍了在瑞士 Münchwilen 的先正达作物保护公司 (Syngenta Crop Protection AG) 以千实验室 (20 L) 和生产 (1000 L) 规模实施基于 LED 的光化学反应技术的最新创新活动,并调查了使用蒙特卡罗分析对光化学灯的资本支出 (CapEx) 不确定性估计。发现对于本文中考虑的反应系统,根据光子速率测量方法——光度测量法或辐射测量法——资本支出不确定性预计在两个标准偏差下的 15-30% 之内。
更新日期:2021-10-15
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