Motivation

Certain early-succession habitats may emerge only at restricted locations following disturbance. Therefore, whether disturbances tend to occur at certain sites or not can significantly affect habitat availability and metapopulation persistence of early-successional habitat specialists. Available models that combine metapopulation and landscape processes do not address how to model mobile, spatially shifting disturbance intensities independent of factors of site suitability. We present a model that allows the study on how a mobile disturbance pattern, of either natural or anthropogenic origin, affects patch network and metapopulation dynamics in realistic, heterogeneous landscapes.

Methods

We simulate metapopulation dynamics using a realistic landscape and varying patch destruction (and turnover) rates. We model the local patch emergence rate as the function of site suitability to patch emergence –a permanent factor–and local disturbance intensity, which we first estimate from empirical data and then simulate using annually updating spatial random fields. Using this model, we test whether and how a mobile disturbance pattern affects metapopulation persistence of the false heath fritillary butterfly (Melitaea diamina).

Results

In our case study, a mobile disturbance pattern caused new patches to emerge further away from occupied patches over time. This decreased the probability of new patches becoming colonized and thus impaired metapopulation persistence even when the median distance between patches appeared unchanging. However, if disturbances moved to areas that were highly suitable to patch emergence, increased habitat availability could compensate the otherwise detrimental effects of a mobile disturbance pattern. Disturbances that had a moderate degree of mobility had the most uncertain effects to metapopulation persistence.

Conclusions

Our modelling approach distinguishes between two processes behind the spatio-temporal pattern and rates of patch emergence–disturbance dynamics and varying site suitability. It enables the use of social and environmental data for forecasting habitat availability for early-succession habitat specialists under alternative future scenarios. It can be applied and developed further to suit multiple study systems. Our case study suggests that for species conservation, it is either beneficial to organize recurring management activities to take place at constant locations, or to gradually shift them towards areas that are highly suitable to patch emergence.

中文翻译：

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移动干扰模式对动态补丁网络和元种群持久性的影响

动机

某些早期继承栖息地可能只出现在受干扰后的受限位置。因此，干扰是否倾向于发生在某些地点会显着影响早期连续栖息地专家的栖息地可用性和复合种群的持久性。现有的组合种群和景观过程的模型没有解决如何模拟与场地适宜性因素无关的移动的、空间变化的干扰强度。我们提出了一个模型，可以研究自然或人为起源的移动干扰模式如何影响现实、异质景观中的斑块网络和复合种群动态。

方法

我们使用逼真的景观和不同的斑块破坏（和周转）率来模拟种群动态。我们将局部斑块出现率建模为对斑块出现的场地适宜性（一个永久性因素）和局部干扰强度的函数，我们首先根据经验数据估计，然后使用每年更新的空间随机场进行模拟。使用该模型，我们测试了移动干扰模式是否以及如何影响假健康贝母蝴蝶 ( Melitaea diamina ) 的集合种群持久性。

结果

在我们的案例研究中，随着时间的推移，移动干扰模式导致新补丁出现在远离被占用补丁的地方。这降低了新斑块被定植的可能性，因此即使斑块之间的中值距离看起来没有变化，也会削弱元种群的持久性。然而，如果干扰移动到非常适合补丁出现的区域，增加的栖息地可用性可以补偿移动干扰模式的其他不利影响。具有中等流动性的干扰对元种群持久性的影响最不确定。

结论

我们的建模方法区分了时空模式背后的两个过程，以及斑块出现率——扰动动态和不同地点的适宜性。它能够使用社会和环境数据来预测未来替代情景下早期继承栖息地专家的栖息地可用性。它可以进一步应用和开发以适应多种学习系统。我们的案例研究表明，对于物种保护，要么在固定地点组织经常性的管理活动，要么将它们逐渐转移到非常适合斑块出现的区域。