Despite the strenuous efforts devoted to its elimination, Chagas disease is still prevalent in large regions of Latin America. Its main vector, Triatoma infestans (kissing bug), feeds on people and domestic animals and finds refuge in the peripheral structures of rural and semi-rural houses. Here we propose a mathematical model based on discrete-time equations that describe the evolution of the populations of all the stages of T. infestans residing in a chicken coop, a typical bug reservoir in non-urban habitats. The chicken coop has also been used as a suitable location for observations of T. infestans populations under realistic, controlled conditions. The variables that govern the model are the time of the year, the temperature, and the blood intake by the triatomines. Using the available data, we design fitting functions, such as maximum blood intake, development time, mortality rate, egg fertility, etc., for each population group. Then, we validate our model using D. Gorla's experimental work on T. infestans populations. Finally, we analyze the minimum conditions of temperature and food availability necessary for the survival of T. infestans, showing that average daily temperatures below 12 °C or average yearly temperatures below 16 °C or above 32 °C lead to colony extinction. Feeding also regulates the colony size, and we find that if a few triatomines (5% of the colony) are well fed, and the rest occasionally get a meager meal, the colony size can be, on average, constant over the years. By quantifying what happens in structures crucial to the species survival, our model is an important step forward towards the formulation of a general population model for T. infestans in the Grand Chaco under current conditions.

尽管为消除该病付出了艰苦的努力，但南美锥虫病在拉丁美洲的大部分地区仍然普遍存在。其主要载体Triatoma infestans（接吻虫）以人和家畜为食，并在农村和半农村房屋的外围结构中寻找避难所。在这里，我们提出了一个基于离散时间方程的数学模型，该方程描述了居住在鸡舍中的T. infestans所有阶段种群的进化，鸡舍是非城市栖息地的典型虫库。鸡舍也被用作观察T. infestans的合适地点现实、受控条件下的人口。控制模型的变量是一年中的时间、温度和 Triatomines 的血液摄入量。利用现有数据，我们为每个人群设计拟合函数，例如最大采血量、发育时间、死亡率、卵子受精率等。然后，我们使用 D. Gorla 对T. infestans种群的实验工作来验证我们的模型。最后，我们分析了T. infestans生存所需的最低温度和食物供应条件，表明日平均气温低于 12 °C 或年平均气温低于 16 °C 或高于 32 °C 会导致菌落灭绝。喂食还调节菌落大小，我们发现，如果少数三亚胺（占菌落的 5%）喂食充足，而其余的偶尔吃得很少，则菌落大小平均可以多年来保持不变。通过量化对物种生存至关重要的结构中发生的情况，我们的模型是朝着在当前条件下为大查科的T. infestans制定一般种群模型迈出的重要一步。