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The Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Trade Flow
Emerging Markets Finance and Trade ( IF 4.859 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-18 , DOI: 10.1080/1540496x.2021.1971075
Dinkneh Gebre Borojo 1 , Jiang Yushi 1, 2 , Miao Miao 3
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the trade flow of 143 countries, considering the EPU of exporter and importer countries and the income heterogeneity of the sample countries for over 2000–2019. Besides, it considered the mediating role of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the EPU-trade nexus. Our results of the two-step Heckman sample selection model imply that the intensive and extensive margins of trade are adversely affected by the exporter and importer countries’ EPU. However, the negative effects of EPU of exporter countries on trade performance turn to positive when the mediating role of the RTAs is controlled. Also, the counterfactual simulation analysis is conducted to compute illustrative distance equivalents of improving the EPU to the average performing country in the sample. Finally, the marginal effect of EPU with respect to GDP per capita results indicates that the higher levels of per capita income seem to decrease the negative effect of EPU on trade. Our findings are robust after we run sensitivity analysis using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) to control heterogeneity and zero-valued observations issues. Finally, based on the findings, policy implications are forwarded.



中文翻译:

经济政策不确定性对贸易流动的影响

摘要

本文考察了经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 对 143 个国家贸易流的影响,考虑了 2000-2019 年出口国和进口国的 EPU 以及样本国家的收入异质性。此外,它还考虑了区域贸易协定 (RTA) 在 EPU 与贸易关系中的中介作用。我们的两步 Heckman 样本选择模型的结果表明,集约化和广泛的贸易边际受到出口国和进口国的 EPU 的不利影响。然而,当区域贸易协定的中介作用得到控制时,出口国EPU对贸易绩效的负面影响转为正面影响。此外,还进行了反事实模拟分析,以计算提高 EPU 到样本中平均绩效国家的说明性距离等值。最后,EPU 对人均 GDP 的边际效应结果表明,较高的人均收入水平似乎降低了 EPU 对贸易的负面影响。在我们使用泊松伪最大似然 (PPML​​) 进行敏感性分析以控制异质性和零值观察问题后,我们的发现是稳健的。最后,根据调查结果,提出政策含义。

更新日期:2021-09-18
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