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Twenty-first century hydrologic and climatic changes over the scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin of Himalayan region using SDSM and RCPs.
Environmental Science and Pollution Research ( IF 5.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-16 , DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16437-2
Saira Munawar 1, 2 , Muhammad Naveed Tahir 2 , Muhammad Hassan Ali Baig 2
Affiliation  

Climatic and hydrological changes of the scarcely gauged mountainous basins remain a challenge to study due to unavailability of observed data. The recent study aims to assess these changes using spatial decision tool statistical downscaling method (SDSM) and snowmelt runoff model (SRM) for the twenty-first century under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). SDSM considered absolute partial correlation coefficient (abs. Pr.) to evaluate efficiency predictors or the predictands of the Jhelum river basin. The performance evaluation of SDSM assessed using coefficient of determination (R2) values for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 under CMIP5 (CCSM4). The biases of the daily time series downscaled data removed by using mean-based biased correction method (MB-BC). Stream projection carried out using SRM by incorporating MODIS snow product. Statistical parameters R2 and volume difference (Dv %) calculated for accuracy assessment of SRM for the simulated and observed discharge (2001-2018). Streamflow projections for the twenty-first century carried out by SRM using de-biased downscaled data. The R2 indicator of SDSM ranged between 78-81% for temperature and 82-86% for precipitation under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The temperature results indicated an increasing trend of 1.5oC and 3.8oC for the twenty-first century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The mean annual precipitation showed a rise of 2-7% while surface runoff projected a rising trend of 3.3-7.4% for RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 respectively till the end of the twenty-first century. The study results revealed that Jhelum basin will be wetter and warmer for the twenty-first century as compare to the baseline period. The hydrographs of the river predicted the occurrence of more extreme events in the region for the twenty-first century. These hydrographs may help for better water conservation and management strategies in the Jhelum basin for the twenty-first century.

中文翻译:

使用 SDSM 和 RCP 对喜马拉雅地区几乎没有测量的 Jhelum 河流域进行了 21 世纪的水文和气候变化。

由于无法获得观测数据,难以测量的山区盆地的气候和水文变化仍然是研究的挑战。最近的研究旨在使用空间决策工具统计降尺度方法 (SDSM) 和融雪径流模型 (SRM) 在代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 下评估 21 世纪的这些变化。SDSM 考虑了绝对偏相关系数 (abs. Pr.) 来评估效率预测因子或杰赫勒姆河流域的预测因子。SDSM 的性能评估使用 CMIP5 (CCSM4) 下 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 的决定系数 (R2) 值进行评估。通过使用基于均值的偏差校正方法 (MB-BC) 去除每日时间序列缩小数据的偏差。通过结合 MODIS 雪产品使用 SRM 进行流投影。统计参数 R2 和体积差 (Dv %) 计算用于模拟和观察放电 (2001-2018) 的 SRM 准确性评估。SRM 使用去偏缩减数据进行的 21 世纪水流预测。在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 下,SDSM 的 R2 指标分别介于温度的 78-81% 和降水的 82-86% 之间。温度结果表明,在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 下,21 世纪温度分别升高了 1.5oC 和 3.8oC。到 21 世纪末,RCP-4.5 和 RCP-8.5 的年平均降水量增加了 2-7%,而地表径流预计分别有 3.3-7.4% 的上升趋势。研究结果表明,与基线期相比,杰赫勒姆盆地在 21 世纪将更加潮湿和温暖。河流的水位线预测该地区在 21 世纪会发生更多极端事件。这些水位线可能有助于在 21 世纪在杰赫勒姆盆地制定更好的水资源保护和管理策略。
更新日期:2021-09-16
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