Tourism Management Perspectives ( IF 7.608 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100875 Daniel Scott 1 , Robert Steiger 2 , Michelle Rutty 3 , Natalie Knowles 1 , Brooklyn Rushton 1
Climate change is an evolving business reality in the ski industry, with recent trends toward shorter ski seasons and emerging climate risk disclosure requirements. Climate change impacts under low- to high-emission futures are examined at 99 ski areas in the American Midwest market with snowmaking. Mid-century season losses range from −25% in a low-emission scenario (SSP245), to −29% under moderate-emissions (SSP370), and − 38% with high-emissions (SSP585). Depending on demand response, utilization intensity could increase between 23 and 40% from the current 4.8 skiers/per acre-day with implications for crowding and visitor experience at ski areas still in operation. Highlighting the importance of low-emission futures, by late-century, transformational impacts in high-emission scenarios would largely eliminate this regional market. The results are compared with previous studies that neglected snowmaking as a climate risk management strategy and thereby substantially overestimated the impact of mid-century and low-emission scenarios.
中文翻译:
美国中西部滑雪产业未来的气候变化风险
气候变化是滑雪行业不断发展的商业现实,最近的趋势是缩短滑雪季节和新出现的气候风险披露要求。在美国中西部市场的 99 个滑雪场进行了造雪,研究了低排放到高排放期货下的气候变化影响。本世纪中叶的季节损失范围从低排放情景 (SSP245) 的 -25% 到中等排放 (SSP370) 的 -29% 和高排放 (SSP585) 的 - 38%。根据需求响应,利用强度可能会从目前的 4.8 名滑雪者/每英亩/天增加 23% 至 40%,这会对仍在运营的滑雪场的拥挤和游客体验产生影响。强调低排放期货的重要性,到本世纪后期,高排放情景中的转型影响将在很大程度上消除这个区域市场。