ABSTRACT

We investigate the impact of product innovation announcements on firm value using an extensive data set of bio-pharmaceutical products. We find that two main effects shape observed firm value changes: a ‘probability effect’, which depends on how investors perceive the product’s likelihood of success, and a ‘portfolio effect’ that depends on the relative importance of a product within a company’s portfolio. We estimate product-specific success probabilities using various machine learning methods. The portfolio importance is measured by product and date-specific net present values. We find that market reactions increase in the portfolio importance of the product under development and diminish in its success probability. Our results aid corporations and investors in evaluating the financial consequences of innovation-related news.

摘要

我们使用广泛的生物制药产品数据集调查产品创新公告对公司价值的影响。我们发现，观察到的公司价值变化有两个主要影响：“概率效应”，取决于投资者如何看待产品成功的可能性，以及“投资组合效应”，取决于产品在公司投资组合中的相对重要性。我们使用各种机器学习方法估计特定产品的成功概率。投资组合的重要性通过产品和特定日期的净现值来衡量。我们发现市场反应增加了正在开发的产品的投资组合重要性并降低了其成功概率。我们的结果有助于企业和投资者评估创新相关新闻的财务后果。