Abstract

The characteristics of the runoff and sediment in the Yellow River were analysed and predicted Based on measured data of from 1951 to 2017. Initially, the phase characteristics of runoff and sediment were analysed by the cumulative anomaly curve method. After that, the trend and catastrophe of runoff and sediment are discuessed using the Mann-Kendall methods. The results revealed that the decreasing trend of runoff and sediment was significant, and the catastrophe time was 1979 and 1992, respectively. Finally, the evolution of the runoff and sediment was predicted quantitatively by using the ARMA model. The predictions indicated that, the Yellow River is likely to remain in the stage of low runoff and sediment.

中文翻译：

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70年来黄河径流泥沙变化特征分析

摘要

黄河径流泥沙特征分析预测 以1951—2017年实测数据为基础，初步采用累积异常曲线法分析了黄河径流泥沙相态特征。之后，使用Mann-Kendall方法讨论径流和沉积物的趋势和灾难。结果表明，径流和泥沙减少趋势显着，灾害时间分别为1979年和1992年。最后，利用ARMA模型对径流和泥沙的演变进行了定量预测。预测表明，黄河可能仍处于低径流泥沙阶段。