Northern peatlands store large amounts of carbon. Observations indicate that forests and peatlands in northern biomes can be alternative stable states for a range of landscape settings. Climatic and hydrological changes may reduce the resilience of peatlands and forests, induce persistent shifts between these states, and release the carbon stored in peatlands. Here, we present a dynamic simulation model constrained and validated by a wide set of observations to quantify how feedbacks in water and carbon cycling control resilience of both peatlands and forests in northern landscapes. Our results show that 34% of Europe (area) has a climate that can currently sustain existing rainwater-fed peatlands (raised bogs). However, raised bog initiation and restoration by water conservation measures after the original peat soil has disappeared is only possible in 10% of Europe where the climate allows raised bogs to initiate and outcompete forests. Moreover, in another 10% of Europe, existing raised bogs (concerning ∼20% of the European raised bogs) are already affected by ongoing climate change. Here, forests may overgrow peatlands, which could potentially release in the order of 4% (∼24 Pg carbon) of the European soil organic carbon pool. Our study demonstrates quantitatively that preserving and restoring peatlands requires looking beyond peatland-specific processes and taking into account wider landscape-scale feedbacks with forest ecosystems.

北部泥炭地储存了大量的碳。观察表明，北部生物群落的森林和泥炭地可以成为一系列景观环境的替代稳定状态。气候和水文变化可能会降低泥炭地和森林的恢复力，导致这些状态之间的持续变化，并释放储存在泥炭地中的碳。在这里，我们提出了一个动态模拟模型，该模型受到一系列广泛观察的约束和验证，以量化水和碳循环的反馈如何控制北部景观中泥炭地和森林的恢复力。我们的结果表明，欧洲（地区）的 34% 的气候目前可以维持现有的雨水灌溉泥炭地（凸起的沼泽）。然而，在原始泥炭土消失后，通过节水措施启动和恢复凸起的沼泽仅在 10% 的欧洲地区是可能的，那里的气候允许凸起的沼泽启动并胜过森林。此外，在另外 10% 的欧洲，现有的凸起沼泽（大约 20% 的欧洲凸起沼泽）已经受到持续气候变化的影响。在这里，森林可能长满泥炭地，这可能释放欧洲土壤有机碳库的 4%（~24 Pg 碳）。我们的研究定量地表明，保护和恢复泥炭地需要超越泥炭地特定过程，并考虑更广泛的森林生态系统景观尺度反馈。现有的凸起沼泽（大约 20% 的欧洲凸起沼泽）已经受到持续气候变化的影响。在这里，森林可能长满泥炭地，这可能释放欧洲土壤有机碳库的 4%（~24 Pg 碳）。我们的研究定量地表明，保护和恢复泥炭地需要超越泥炭地特定过程，并考虑更广泛的森林生态系统景观尺度反馈。现有的凸起沼泽（大约 20% 的欧洲凸起沼泽）已经受到持续气候变化的影响。在这里，森林可能长满泥炭地，这可能释放欧洲土壤有机碳库的 4%（~24 Pg 碳）。我们的研究定量地表明，保护和恢复泥炭地需要超越泥炭地特定过程，并考虑更广泛的森林生态系统景观尺度反馈。