Global warming and some climate change policies pose additional social risks that necessitate novel responses from the welfare state. Eco-social policies have significant potential to address these challenges, but their wide-scale adoption will depend, among other factors, on public support. In the current article, we theorise how public opinion about eco-social policies is likely to be influenced by a set of contextual and individual-level factors, as well as the perceived welfare deservingness of the target groups. Alongside contributing to the emerging body of literature on eco-social policies, this theoretical framework could help policymakers to anticipate the social groups that will support or oppose eco-social policy agendas and how some of the contradictions could be reduced through policy design.

全球变暖和一些气候变化政策带来了额外的社会风险，需要福利国家采取新的应对措施。生态社会政策具有应对这些挑战的巨大潜力，但其广泛采用将取决于公众支持等因素。在当前的文章中，我们从理论上分析了关于生态社会政策的公众舆论可能如何受到一系列背景和个人层面因素的影响，以及目标群体的福利应得感。除了对新兴的生态社会政策文献做出贡献外，该理论框架还可以帮助决策者预测将支持或反对生态社会政策议程的社会群体，以及如何通过政策设计减少一些矛盾。