In shale gas field development, the major endogenous uncertainty comes from the production profile of candidate wells and its realization is dependent on the development decision. In this work, we apply multistage stochastic programming to address the shale gas field development planning problem under production profile uncertainty. Business realities such as budget limit and uncertainty resolution delay are also considered in the proposed model. To solve the multistage stochastic model, a Lagrangean decomposition method and a heuristic method are proposed. Computational results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methods on examples that are otherwise intractable. The optimal development strategy from the proposed model is analyzed under different levels of uncertainties. Different cases are further tested to figure out the impact of budget and resolution delay on development decisions.

中文翻译：

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生产剖面不确定下的页岩气田开发规划

在页岩气田开发中，主要的内生不确定性来自候选井的生产剖面，其实现取决于开发决策。在这项工作中，我们应用多阶段随机规划来解决生产剖面不确定下的页岩气田开发规划问题。所提出的模型中还考虑了诸如预算限制和不确定性解决延迟等业务现实。针对多级随机模型的求解，提出了拉格朗日分解方法和启发式方法。计算结果证明了所提出的方法在其他难以处理的示例上的效率。在不同程度的不确定性下，分析了所提出模型的最优发展策略。