Abstract. Volcanic eruptions are amongst the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during the explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world, with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for Jan Mayen volcanic island in terms of ash dispersal and airborne tephra concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve in the characterization and modelling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano’s Eruptive Source Parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous Probability Density Function (PDF) defined from the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of climatic data are considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with meteorological conditions and used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km-resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time and persistence at different flight levels in the atmosphere. The resulting maps represent an aid to civil protection, decision makers and aviation stakeholders in assessing and preventing the potential impact from a future eruption at Jan Mayen.

中文翻译：

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评估扬马延岛（挪威）火山爆发对北大西洋航空的潜在影响

摘要。由于对生命、资产和环境的潜在影响，火山喷发是最危险的自然事件之一。特别是，火山喷发期间火山灰和气溶胶的大气扩散对生命构成严重威胁，并对基础设施和全球航空安全产生重大影响。扬马延火山岛位于北大西洋横贯大陆的空中交通航线上，被认为是世界上最北端的火山活动区，在过去 200 年中至少记录了 5 次喷发期。然而，关于未来形成火山灰的喷发对空中交通可能造成的后果的定量危害评估是不存在的。本研究首次对扬马延火山岛在不同飞行高度的灰烬扩散和空气中的火山灰浓度进行了全面的长期火山危害评估。为了深入研究这种潜在影响的表征和建模，采用了一种基于合并大量数值模拟的概率方法，改变了火山的喷发源参数 (ESP) 和气象情景。每个 ESP 值都是根据 Jan Mayen 地质记录定义的连续概率密度函数 (PDF) 随机采样的。考虑了 20 多年的气候数据，以探索与气象条件相关的自然变化，并用于在 2 公里分辨率的网格上对灰烬扩散模型 FALL3D 进行数千次模拟。将模拟场景结合起来，生成大气中不同飞行高度的空气中灰分浓度、到达时间和持续时间的概率图。由此产生的地图有助于民保护、决策者和航空利益相关者评估和预防扬马延火山未来喷发的潜在影响。