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Integrative decision support for accident emergency response by combining MFM and Go-Flow
Process Safety and Environmental Protection ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2021.09.015
Mengchu Song 1 , Morten Lind 1 , Jun Yang 2 , Akio Gofuku 3
Affiliation  

Emergency response planning associated with written procedures play a key role in the process safety to ensure that accident can be properly managed. Although the extensive use of digital techniques have significantly reduced the accident risk by early warnings and operation guidance, the Fukushima nuclear disaster reminds us that the unexpected events may still exceed existing system capability to indicate appropriate responding measures. A novel digitalized approach is hence required for planning decision support. This article presents a joint utilizing of two modeling and analysis methodologies, which are complementary to each other to provide comprehensive insights for decision-making in the accident emergency response. Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) is applied to develop an intelligent reasoning system, which can harness plant’s qualitative functional knowledge to search available equipments and corresponding action sequences potentially being able to manage the accident. Go-Flow is a success-oriented reliability analysis method specially suitable for quantitative risk assessment in the situations involving configuration changes. The underlying configuration of each MFM-driven emergency response measure will update the understanding of goal achievement and modify the Go-Flow chart, by which plan’s effectiveness of risk reduction can be evaluated. Moreover, Go-Flow is also used to conduct the risk matrix assessment for identifying critical components, which can provide a reference for effective assignment of resources in the long-term accident management. This work is expected to strengthen operator’s ability of emergency response planning from perspective of both measure development and optimization. An accident scenario similar to what occurred in the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been used to demonstrate the application of the propose approach.



中文翻译:

MFM与Go-Flow相结合的事故应急综合决策支持

与书面程序相关的应急响应计划在过程安全中起着关键作用,以确保事故得到妥善管理。尽管数字技术的广泛应用通过预警和操作指导显着降低了事故风险,但福岛核灾难提醒我们,突发事件仍可能超出现有系统能力,提示采取适当的应对措施。因此,需要一种新颖的数字化方法来支持规划决策。本文介绍了两种建模和分析方法的联合使用,它们相互补充,为事故应急响应的决策提供全面的见解。应用多级流建模(MFM)开发智能推理系统,它可以利用工厂的定性功能知识来搜索可用设备和可能能够管理事故的相应动作序列。Go-Flow 是一种以成功为导向的可靠性分析方法,特别适用于涉及配置变化情况下的定量风险评估。每个 MFM 驱动的应急响应措施的底层配置将更新对目标实现的理解并修改 Go-Flow 图,通过它可以评估计划的风险降低有效性。此外,Go-Flow 还用于进行风险矩阵评估以识别关键组件,可为长期事故管理中的资源有效分配提供参考。这项工作有望从措施制定和优化的角度加强运营商的应急响应计划能力。类似于福岛第一核电站发生的事故情景已被用来证明所提议方法的应用。

更新日期:2021-09-23
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