Water stress will intensify as rapidly growing urban areas place heavy pressure on the available water resources. The study adopts system dynamic (SD) modelling—a decision aid tool in assessing the vulnerability of water resources by exhibiting interrelationships between the variables in the system. This model is applied in Chennai City, India, which is continuously affected by water stress issues. The purpose of this paper is to (i) examine the applicability of the SD model for vulnerability assessment by developing water security, water supply, and sewerage indices involving groundwater, seawater, and surface water systems; (ii) analyse the current and future behaviour of the developed indices to understand the vulnerability of water systems; and (iii) evolve plausible scenarios under alternative conditions to decide upon the policy interventions and phase-wise recommendation. The validation results enhance the model’s reliability. The model highlights the necessity of reinforcing water infrastructure system to comply with the city’s future water demand. The simulation runs demonstrated that improving water availability and water use efficiency is crucial in enhancing water security. Phase-wise projection of the selected policy scenario exhibited the effectiveness of the thrust parameters in enhancing the indices. This model can also be applied to any developing city with a necessary alteration.

随着快速发展的城市地区对可用水资源造成沉重压力，水资源压力将加剧。该研究采用系统动态 (SD) 建模——一种通过展示系统变量之间的相互关系来评估水资源脆弱性的决策辅助工具。该模型应用于印度金奈市，该市持续受到水资源压力问题的影响。本文的目的是 (i) 通过制定涉及地下水、海水和地表水系统的水安全、供水和污水指数，检验 SD 模型对脆弱性评估的适用性；(ii) 分析已开发指数的当前和未来行为，以了解水系统的脆弱性；(iii) 在替代条件下演化出合理的情景，以决定政策干预和分阶段建议。验证结果提高了模型的可靠性。该模型强调了加强供水基础设施系统以满足城市未来用水需求的必要性。模拟运行表明，提高可用水量和用水效率对于加强水安全至关重要。所选政策情景的分阶段预测显示了推力参数在增强指数方面的有效性。这种模式也可以应用于任何发展中的城市，并进行必要的改造。该模型强调了加强供水基础设施系统以满足城市未来用水需求的必要性。模拟运行表明，提高可用水量和用水效率对于加强水安全至关重要。所选政策情景的分阶段预测显示了推力参数在增强指数方面的有效性。这种模式也可以应用于任何发展中的城市，并进行必要的改造。该模型强调了加强供水基础设施系统以满足城市未来用水需求的必要性。模拟运行表明，提高可用水量和用水效率对于加强水安全至关重要。所选政策情景的分阶段预测显示了推力参数在增强指数方面的有效性。这种模式也可以应用于任何发展中的城市，并进行必要的改造。