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On the development of a regional climate change adaptation plan: Integrating model-assisted projections and stakeholders' perceptions
Science of the Total Environment ( IF 9.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150320
Catarina Gonçalves 1 , João P Honrado 2 , João Cerejeira 3 , Rita Sousa 4 , Paulo M Fernandes 5 , Ana Sofia Vaz 6 , Manuela Alves 7 , Miguel Araújo 1 , Cláudia Carvalho-Santos 8 , André Fonseca 5 , Hélder Fraga 5 , João F Gonçalves 9 , Angela Lomba 10 , Eva Pinto 10 , Joana R Vicente 10 , João A Santos 5
Affiliation  

Climate change is expected to have strong social-ecological implications, with global but especially regional and local challenges. To assess the climatic vulnerability of a given territory, it is necessary to evaluate its exposure to climate change and its adaptive capacity. This study describes the development of an Action Plan for Adapting to Climate Change in the Tâmega and Sousa Region, a mountainous inter-municipal community in the North of Portugal. The goals were to identify the main impacts of climate change on water resources, agriculture, forests, biodiversity, and socioeconomic sectors, as well as to develop a plan, merging local and scientific knowledge through a transdisciplinary lens. This study describes an approach that combines modelling methods, applied in the different sectors, and participatory methods, based on the analysis of the perceptions of local actors. Results indicate that the target region will experience a generalized increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation, which will negatively impact all studied social-ecological dimensions. Overall, local business and institutional agents perceive the primary and tourism sectors as the most vulnerable in the region. The described framework demonstrates the engagement process between relevant scientific experts and local practitioners, as well as how it is critical to understand the impacts of climate change and to support the co-design of an adaptation plan, which in turn can guide political and economic decision-making towards effective implementation of the plan. In addition, the difficulties and challenges encountered during this process are discussed to support future plans and strategies for local adaptation.



中文翻译:

关于制定区域气候变化适应计划:整合模型辅助预测和利益相关者的看法

气候变化预计会产生强烈的社会生态影响,带来全球尤其是区域和地方挑战。为了评估特定领土的气候脆弱性,有必要评估其对气候变化的暴露程度及其适应能力。本研究描述了在葡萄牙北部山区城市间社区 Tâmega 和 Sousa 地区制定适应气候变化的行动计划。目标是确定气候变化对水资源、农业、森林、生物多样性和社会经济部门的主要影响,以及制定计划,通过跨学科的视角融合当地和科学知识。本研究描述了一种将应用于不同部门的建模方法和参与式方法相结合的方法,基于对当地参与者看法的分析。结果表明,目标区域将经历普遍的温度升高和降水减少,这将对所有研究的社会生态维度产生负面影响。总体而言,当地商业和机构代理认为初级产业和旅游业是该地区最脆弱的部门。所描述的框架展示了相关科学专家和当地从业者之间的参与过程,以及了解气候变化的影响和支持共同设计适应计划的重要性,这反过来又可以指导政治和经济决策——使计划有效实施。此外,

更新日期:2021-09-17
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