Stormwater runoff is one critical urban issue that exemplifies the complexity in coupling human and natural systems. Innumerable studies have described and assessed the hydrological responses that result from land-use changes through a ‘post land use change’ hydrological analysis. Complex systems theory, however, suggests that the urban and ecological systems operate as an intertwined whole. This means that typical one-directional analysis can miss critical components of a bi-directional sociohydrological process. In addition, there is a difference in physical scales between hydrological analysis and policymaking that is often left unresolved. Typical hydrological models are limited to a watershed and are not easily applied to policymaking that is generally demarcated by a political boundary. These types of models also lack the spatial explicitness needed for physical design responses. To address these issues, we develop an integrated, finely scaled, spatially explicit sociohydrological modeling system. The coupled land use/stormwater model projects and assesses bi-directional sociohydrological impacts to changing land uses. We apply and test the system in McHenry County, Illinois, by modeling three scenarios to the year 2045. The results show that residential and commercial developments exhibit different responses to hydrological variables, resulting in varying patterns of land use locational choices. We also find that there is a conflict between developmental preferences that prefer to be located near water (housing) and those that prefer to be located away from runoff-prone water areas (commercial land uses). Our bi-directional modeling system simulates cell-to-cell interactions to produce quantifiable and practically useful outputs. The output for McHenry County, Illinois, includes specific, locational information on how to optimize developmental regulations in response to the contradictory developmental preferences and, more importantly, how to live with runoff in the context of resilience. This research supports the need for cell-based forward-looking modeling to better understand complex urban systems and strategically establish a resilient built environment.

雨水径流是一个关键的城市问题，它体现了人类与自然系统耦合的复杂性。无数研究已经通过“土地利用变化后”水文分析描述和评估了土地利用变化导致的水文响应。然而，复杂系统理论表明，城市和生态系统作为一个相互交织的整体运行。这意味着典型的单向分析可能会遗漏双向社会水文过程的关键组成部分。此外，水文分析和政策制定之间的物理尺度差异往往未得到解决。典型的水文模型仅限于流域，不容易应用于通常由政治边界划定的决策。这些类型的模型也缺乏物理设计响应所需的空间明确性。为了解决这些问题，我们开发了一个集成的、精细尺度的、空间明确的社会水文建模系统。土地利用/雨水耦合模型预测和评估对土地利用变化的双向社会水文影响。我们通过模拟到 2045 年的三种情景在伊利诺伊州麦克亨利县应用和测试该系统。结果表明，住宅和商业开发对水文变量表现出不同的响应，从而导致土地使用位置选择的不同模式。我们还发现，倾向于靠近水源（住房）的发展偏好与倾向于远离易径流水域（商业用地）的发展偏好之间存在冲突。我们的双向建模系统模拟细胞与细胞之间的相互作用，以产生可量化且实用的输出。伊利诺伊州麦克亨利县的输出包括关于如何优化发展法规以应对矛盾的发展偏好的具体位置信息，更重要的是，如何在恢复力的背景下应对径流。这项研究支持基于细胞的前瞻性建模的需求，以更好地了解复杂的城市系统并战略性地建立一个有弹性的建筑环境。更重要的是，如何在弹性的背景下应对径流。这项研究支持基于单元的前瞻性建模的需求，以更好地了解复杂的城市系统并战略性地建立一个有弹性的建筑环境。更重要的是，如何在弹性的背景下应对径流。这项研究支持基于单元的前瞻性建模的需求，以更好地了解复杂的城市系统并战略性地建立一个有弹性的建筑环境。