The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered.

气候危机要求全球决策者做出强有力的回应。当前的全球气候政策议程要求将技术变革、创新、劳动力市场和金融体系引向有序、快速的低碳转型。然而，进展缓慢且渐进。世界范围内使用的政策评估框架的不足可能是造成这一问题的重要原因，因为它们经常无法充分考虑社会和技术变革的动态。风险被低估，创新带来的经济机会在实践中通常没有评估。在这里，我们确定了这些不足的根本原因，并将它们确定为标准分析框架的结构特征。我们回顾了复杂性科学和动力系统科学的理论原理，并对现有的政策分析框架和拟议政策战略结果的评估进行了概括，以帮助更好地识别和构建转型变革的情况。我们使用术语“风险-机会分析”来描述广义方法，其中传统的经济成本-收益分析是一个特例。为动态和转型变革期间的政策制定提供了新的指导原则。其中传统的经济成本收益分析是一个特例。为动态和转型变革期间的政策制定提供了新的指导原则。其中传统的经济成本收益分析是一个特例。为动态和转型变革期间的政策制定提供了新的指导原则。