Abstract

Government reports document more than 14,000 homicides and more than 195,000 aggravated assaults with firearms in 2017. In addition, there were 346 mass shootings, with 4 or more victims, including over 2000 people shot. These statistics do not include suicides (two-thirds of gun deaths) or accidents (5% of gun deaths). This article describes statistical issues discussed at a national forum to stimulate collaboration between statisticians and criminologists. Topics include: (i) available data sources and their shortcomings and efforts to improve the quality, and alternative new data registers of shootings; (ii) gun violence patterns and trends, with statistical models and clustering effects in urban areas; (iii) research for understanding effective strategies for gun violence prevention and the role of the police in solving gun homicides; (iv) the role of reliable forensic science in solving cases involving shootings; and (v) the topic of police shootings, where they are more prevalent and the characteristics of the officers involved. The final section calls the statistical community to engage in collaborations with social scientists to provide the most effective methodological tools for understanding and mitigating the societal problem of gun violence.

摘要

政府报告记录了 2017 年超过 14,000 起凶杀案和超过 195,000 起使用枪支的严重袭击。此外，还有 346 起大规模枪击事件，有 4 名或更多受害者，其中包括 2000 多人被枪杀。这些统计数据不包括自杀（三分之二的枪支死亡）或事故（枪支死亡的 5%）。本文描述了在国家论坛上讨论的统计问题，以促进统计学家和犯罪学家之间的合作。主题包括：(i) 可用的数据来源及其缺点和提高质量的努力，以及枪击事件的替代新数据登记册；(ii) 枪支暴力模式和趋势，以及城市地区的统计模型和集群效应；(iii) 研究以了解预防枪支暴力的有效战略和警察在解决枪支凶杀案中的作用；(iv) 可靠的法医学在解决枪击案件中的作用；(v) 警察枪击事件的主题，这些事件更为普遍，以及所涉人员的特征。最后一部分呼吁统计界与社会科学家合作，为理解和减轻枪支暴力的社会问题提供最有效的方法论工具。