The scientific literature is scarce when referring to the influence of atmospheric pollutants on neurodegenerative diseases for present and future climate change scenarios. In this sense, this contribution evaluates the incidence of dementia (Alzheimer's disease, AD, and dementia from unspecified cause, DU) occurring in Europe associated with the exposure to air pollution (essentially NO₂ and PM2.5) for the present climatic period (1991–2010) and for a future climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 2031–2050). The GEMM methodology has been applied to air pollution simulations using the chemistry/climate regional model WRF-Chem. Present population data were obtained from NASA's Center for Socioeconomic Data and Applications (SEDAC); while future population projections for the year 2050 were derived from the United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs-Population Dynamics. Overall, the estimated incidence rate (cases per year) of AD and DU associated with exposure to air pollution over Europe is 498,000 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 348,600–647,400] and 314,000 (95% CI 257,500-401,900), respectively. An important increase in the future incidence rate is projected (around 72% for both types of dementia) when considering the effect of climate change together with the foreseen changes in the future population, because of the expected aging of European population. The climate penalty (impacts of future climate change alone on air quality) has a limited effect on the total changes of dementia (approx. 0.5%), because the large increase in the incidence rate over southern Europe is offset by its decrease over more northern countries, favored by an improvement of air pollution caused by the projected enhancement of rainfall.

在提及大气污染物对当前和未来气候变化情景下的神经退行性疾病的影响时，科学文献很少。从这个意义上说，这项贡献评估了在欧洲发生的与暴露于空气污染（主要是 NO ₂和 PM2.5) 用于当前气候期 (1991-2010) 和未来气候变化情景 (RCP8.5, 2031-2050)。GEMM 方法已应用于使用化学/气候区域模型 WRF-Chem 进行的空气污染模拟。目前的人口数据来自美国宇航局的社会经济数据和应用中心（SEDAC）；而 2050 年的未来人口预测来自联合国 (UN) 经济和社会事务部 - 人口动态。总体而言，与欧洲空气污染暴露相关的 AD 和 DU 的估计发病率（每年病例数）为 498,000 [95% 置信区间 (95% CI) 348,600-647,400] 和 314,000 (95% CI 257,500-401,900)，分别。由于欧洲人口的预期老龄化，考虑到气候变化的影响以及未来人口的预期变化，预计未来发病率将显着增加（两种类型的痴呆症均约为 72%）。气候惩罚（仅未来气候变化对空气质量的影响）对痴呆症的总变化影响有限（约 0.5%），因为南欧发病率的大幅上升被更北欧地区发病率的下降所抵消预计降雨量增加导致空气污染得到改善的国家。