Cost reductions of rooftop photovoltaics and battery storage, increasing retail electricity prices as well as falling feed-in remuneration provide strong incentives for many German households to engage in self-consumption. These developments may also affect the electricity system as a whole. Against this background, we jointly apply a prosumer simulation and an agent-based electricity market simulation in order to investigate the long-term impacts of a residential battery storage diffusion on the electricity market. We analyze different regulatory frameworks and find significant effects on the household level, yet only moderate system impacts. In the long run, the diffusion of residential battery storage seems difficult to govern, even under a restrictive regulation. In contrast, the way the batteries are operated may be easier to regulate. Policymakers and regulators should focus on this aspect, since a system-friendly battery operation supports the system integration of residential photovoltaics while having little impact on the households’ self-sufficiency.

屋顶光伏和电池存储成本的降低、零售电价的上涨以及上网电价的下降，为许多德国家庭提供了自我消费的强大动力。这些发展也可能影响整个电力系统。在此背景下，我们联合应用产消者模拟和基于代理的电力市场模拟，以研究住宅电池储能扩散对电力市场的长期影响。我们分析了不同的监管框架，发现对家庭层面的影响显着，但对系统的影响不大。从长远来看，住宅电池储能的扩散似乎难以控制，即使是在限制性监管之下。相比之下，电池的运行方式可能更容易调节。