Cultural ecosystem services represent nonmaterial benefits people derive from the environment; these benefits include outdoor recreation opportunities. Changes in climatic conditions are likely to shift the spatial and temporal demand for recreational ecosystem services. To date, little is known about the magnitude and spatial variability in these shifts across large geographic extents. We use 14 years of geotagged social media data to explore how the climatological mean of maximum temperature affects the demand for recreational ecosystem services by season across public lands in the continental United States. We also investigate how the demand for recreational ecosystem services on public lands may change by 2050 under two climate change scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Across all public lands in the continental U.S., demand for recreational ecosystem services is expected to decrease 18% by 2050 under RCP 4.5 in the summer, but increase 12% in the winter and 5% in the spring, with no significant changes in the fall. There is substantial variation in the magnitude of projected changes by region. In the spring and fall, some regions are likely to see an increase in the demand for recreational ecosystem services (e.g., Arkansas-Rio Grande-Texas-Gulf), while others will see declines (e.g., South Atlantic Gulf, California Great Basin). Our findings suggest the total demand for recreational ecosystem services across the continental U.S. is expected to decline under warming temperatures. However, there is a large amount of variation in where, when, and by how much, demand will change. The peak season for visiting public lands is likely to lengthen in the continental U.S. as the climate continues to warm, with demand declining in the summer and growing in the off-season.

文化生态系统服务代表人们从环境中获得的非物质利益；这些好处包括户外休闲机会。气候条件的变化可能会改变对休闲生态系统服务的空间和时间需求。迄今为止，人们对这些跨越大地理范围的变化的幅度和空间变异性知之甚少。我们使用 14 年的地理标记社交媒体数据来探索最高温度的气候平均值如何影响美国大陆公共土地按季节对休闲生态系统服务的需求。我们还调查了到 2050 年在两种气候变化情景下（RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5）对公共土地休闲生态系统服务的需求可能会如何变化。在美国大陆的所有公共土地上，到 2050 年，根据 RCP 4.5，夏季对休闲生态系统服务的需求预计将减少 18%，但在冬季增加 12%，春季增加 5%，秋季没有显着变化。不同地区预测变化的幅度存在很大差异。在春季和秋季，一些地区对休闲生态系统服务的需求可能会增加（例如，阿肯色州-里奥格兰德州-德克萨斯州-海湾），而其他地区则会出现下降（例如，南大西洋海湾、加利福尼亚大盆地） . 我们的研究结果表明，在气温升高的情况下，美国大陆对休闲生态系统服务的总需求预计将下降。然而，需求将在何处、何时以及改变的程度方面存在很大差异。