Global climate change is gradually altering species distribution and spatial patterns of diversity. Yet, climatic factors influencing the local distribution and habitat preferences for southern African species remain largely unexplored. As such, predicting species distribution patterns and identifying environmental covariates that promote species range expansion will be critical in developing management protocols for biodiversity protection. Maxent, a species distribution model algorithm that applies a maximum entropy machine learning technique, is used in this study to map the geographical distributions of appropriate habitats for Colophospermum mopane (J.Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard in southern Africa under current and future climate change scenarios. We identified the highest contributors to the modelled distributions and calculated the range changes (expansion or loss) in southern Africa for C. mopane under three Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s and 2070s. Our results showed that the distribution of C. mopane was mainly influenced by solar radiation, annual temperature range, and annual precipitation. We also observe that C. mopane is distributed continuously in southern Africa, from southern Angola and northern Namibia to central-southern Mozambique, with a total occurrence area of 1,281,242 km². According to the species response curves, this species preferred habitats with annual precipitation of 130–200 mm, an annual temperature range of 22–28 °C, and elevations of about 500–1000 m above sea level. Under climate change scenarios, suitable habitat areas reduced significantly in the northern limits of the potential distribution areas while they expanded in the southern limits. Overall, the appropriate habitat areas will likely expand the least (4.08–4.46%) and decline the most (8.83–10.08%) under the extreme scenario of RCP8.5, depending on the year. Although there is a lack of consensus on the range changes in future distributions among the various RCPs, it is clear that solar radiation will significantly limit the distribution of C. mopane. This knowledge is important for landscape planners and rangeland managers working to safeguard biodiversity from extinction.

全球气候变化正在逐渐改变物种分布和多样性的空间格局。然而，影响南部非洲物种当地分布和栖息地偏好的气候因素在很大程度上仍未得到探索。因此，预测物种分布模式和确定促进物种范围扩大的环境协变量对于制定生物多样性保护管理协议至关重要。Maxent 是一种应用最大熵机器学习技术的物种分布模型算法，在本研究中用于绘制Colophospermum mopane适当栖息地的地理分布(J.Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard 在当前和未来气候变化情景下的南部非洲。我们确定了模拟分布的最高贡献者，并计算了2050 年代和 2070 年代三个代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 下C. mopane在南部非洲的范围变化（扩展或损失）。我们的研究结果表明，C. mopane的分布主要受太阳辐射、年温差和年降水量的影响。我们还观察到C. mopane在南部非洲连续分布，从安哥拉南部和纳米比亚北部到莫桑比克中南部，总发生面积1,281,242 km ². 根据物种响应曲线，该物种偏爱年降水量130-200 mm、年气温22-28 °C、海拔约500-1000 m的栖息地。在气候变化情景下，潜在分布区北部边界的适宜栖息地面积显着减少，而南部边界则扩大。总体而言，在RCP8.5的极端情景下，适当的栖息地面积可能会扩大最少（4.08-4.46％），下降最多（8.83-10.08％），具体取决于年份。尽管对未来各种 RCP 分布的范围变化缺乏共识，但很明显太阳辐射将显着限制C. mopane的分布. 这些知识对于致力于保护生物多样性免于灭绝的景观规划者和牧场管理者很重要。