The uptake of diversified farming systems is constrained by a scarcity of evidence regarding financial costs, benefits, and risks. Here, we evaluate the productivity and projected farm income of an agroforestry system, where apples are integrated with arable crops, by combining primary data with ecosystem service and cost-benefit models. Our ecosystem service assessments included: 1) weed and pest associations with arable yields; 2) apple seed set as a proxy for pollination, and; 3) carbon sequestration. Arable yields were up to 11% lower in agroforestry than arable systems, and were significantly negatively associated with weed cover in both systems. Apple yields in agroforestry were similar to typical yields from comparable orchards. Apple seed set was significantly higher in agroforestry than conventional orchards for one of two varieties. Predicted gross mixed income was higher in agroforestry than arable systems in 15 of 18 productivity scenarios over 20 years, which was supported by a case-study. Apple yield and price were the major determinants of gross mixed income. Payments for carbon sequestration were predicted to contribute 47% to 88% of agroforestry establishment costs. This study demonstrates how a diversified farming system can improve farm income, but grant support would reduce the initial negative cash-flow.

由于缺乏有关财务成本、收益和风险的证据，多样化农业系统的采用受到限制。在这里，我们通过将原始数据与生态系统服务和成本效益模型相结合，评估农林业系统的生产力和预计的农业收入，其中苹果与可耕作物相结合。我们的生态系统服务评估包括：1) 杂草和害虫与耕地产量的关联；2) 将苹果种子设置为授粉代理，以及；3) 碳封存。农林业的耕地产量比耕地系统低 11%，并且与两个系统中的杂草覆盖率显着负相关。农林业中的苹果产量与可比果园的典型产量相似。对于两个品种中的一个，农林业中的苹果种子结实率明显高于传统果园。在 20 年的 18 个生产力情景中的 15 个情景中，农林业的预测混合总收入高于耕地系统，这得到了案例研究的支持。苹果产量和价格是总混合收入的主要决定因素。碳封存费用预计将占农林业建设成本的 47% 至 88%。本研究展示了多样化的农业系统如何提高农场收入，但赠款支持将减少初始负现金流。