Mosquito-borne West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of West Nile disease in humans, horses, and some bird species. Since the initial introduction of WNV to the United States (US), approximately 30,000 horses have been impacted by West Nile neurologic disease and hundreds of additional horses are infected each year. Research describing the drivers of West Nile disease in horses is greatly needed to better anticipate the spatial and temporal extent of disease risk, improve disease surveillance, and alleviate future economic impacts to the equine industry and private horse owners. To help meet this need, we integrated techniques from spatiotemporal epidemiology, eco-phylogenetics, and distributional ecology to assess West Nile disease risk in horses throughout the contiguous US. Our integrated approach considered horse abundance and virus exposure, vector and host distributions, and a variety of extrinsic climatic, socio-economic, and environmental risk factors. Birds are WNV reservoir hosts, and therefore we quantified avian host community dynamics across the continental US to show intra-annual variability in host phylogenetic structure and demonstrate host phylodiversity as a mechanism for virus amplification in time and virus dilution in space. We identified drought as a potential amplifier of virus transmission and demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial non-stationarity when quantifying interaction between disease risk and meteorological influences such as temperature and precipitation. Our results delineated the timing and location of several areas at high risk of West Nile disease and can be used to prioritize vaccination programs and optimize virus surveillance and monitoring.

中文翻译：

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整合时空流行病学、生态系统发育学和分布生态学来评估马匹的西尼罗河疾病风险

蚊媒西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 是人类、马和一些鸟类中西尼罗河疾病的病原体。自从 WNV 最初引入美国 (US) 以来，大约 30,000 匹马受到西尼罗河神经系统疾病的影响，每年还有数百匹马受到感染。为了更好地预测疾病风险的空间和时间范围、改进疾病监测并减轻未来对马业和私人马主的经济影响，非常需要描述马匹中西尼罗河疾病驱动因素的研究。为了帮助满足这一需求，我们整合了来自时空流行病学、生态系统发育学和分布生态学的技术，以评估整个美国本土马匹的西尼罗河疾病风险。我们的综合方法考虑了马的丰度和病毒暴露、媒介和宿主分布，以及各种外部气候、社会经济和环境风险因素。鸟类是 WNV 水库宿主，因此我们量化了整个美国大陆的鸟类宿主群落动态，以显示宿主系统发育结构的年内变异性，并证明宿主系统多样性是病毒在时间上放大和在空间上稀释病毒的机制。我们将干旱确定为病毒传播的潜在放大器，并证明了在量化疾病风险与气象影响（如温度和降水）之间的相互作用时考虑空间非平稳性的重要性。