1. Spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) can simulate spatiotemporal changes in species' range dynamics in response to variation in climatic and environmental conditions, and anthropogenic activities. When combined with pattern-oriented modelling methods, ecological processes and drivers of range shifts and extinctions can be identified, and plausible chains of causality revealed.
2. The open-source multi-platform R package poems provides functionality for simulating and validating projections of species' range dynamics using stochastic, lattice-based population models. Built-in modules allow parameter uncertainty to propagate through to model simulations, with their effects on species' range dynamics evaluated using Approximate Bayesian Computation. These validation procedures identify models with the structural complexity and parameterisation needed to simulate the effects of past changes in climate, environment and human activities on species' range shifts and extinction risk.
3. We illustrate the features and versatility of poems by simulating the historical decline and extinction of the Thylacine Thylacinus cynocephalus, an icon of recent extinctions in Australia. We show that poems can reveal likely ecological pathways to extinction using pattern-oriented methods, providing validated projections of the range collapse and population decline of threatened species.
4. By providing flexible and extendable modules for building and validating SEPMs of species' range dynamics, poems allows the effects of past and future threats on species' populations to be quantified using well-parameterised, structurally realistic models, with important generative mechanisms. Since poems can directly unravel ecological processes of species responses to global change, and strengthen predictions of range shifts and extinction risk—within a flexible, R-based environment—we anticipate that poems will be of significant value to ecologists, conservation managers and biogeographers.

中文翻译：

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诗歌：使用面向模式的验证模拟物种范围动态的 R 包

1. 空间显性种群模型 (SEPM) 可以模拟物种范围动态的时空变化，以响应气候和环境条件的变化以及人为活动。当与面向模式的建模方法相结合时，可以识别生态过程和范围变化和灭绝的驱动因素，并揭示可能的因果关系链。
2. 开源多平台 R 包诗提供了使用随机、基于格的种群模型来模拟和验证物种范围动态预测的功能。内置模块允许参数不确定性传播到模型模拟，并使用近似贝叶斯计算评估它们对物种范围动态的影响。这些验证程序确定具有结构复杂性和参数化的模型，以模拟过去气候、环境和人类活动的变化对物种范围变化和灭绝风险的影响。
3. 我们通过模拟袋狼袋狼的历史衰退和灭绝来说明诗歌的特点和多功能性，袋狼袋狼是澳大利亚最近灭绝的象征。我们表明，诗歌可以使用面向模式的方法揭示可能的灭绝生态途径，提供对受威胁物种的范围崩溃和种群下降的经过验证的预测。
4. 通过提供灵活和可扩展的模块来构建和验证物种范围动态的 SEPM，诗歌允许使用参数化、结构真实的模型以及重要的生成机制来量化过去和未来威胁对物种种群的影响。由于诗歌可以直接揭示物种对全球变化做出反应的生态过程，并加强对范围变化和灭绝风险的预测——在基于 R 的灵活环境中——我们预计诗歌将对生态学家、保护管理者和生物地理学家具有重要价值。