Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM) is experiencing one of the world’s fastest and marked transitions toward variable renewable energy generation. This transformation poses challenges to system security and reliability and has triggered increased variability and uncertainty in electricity prices. By employing an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (eGARCH) model, we gauge the effects of wind power generation on the dynamics of electricity prices in the NEM. We find that a 1 GWh increase in wind generation decreases daily prices up to 1.3 AUD/MWh and typically increases price volatility up to 2%. Beyond consumption and gas prices, hydro generation also contributes to an increase in electricity prices and their volatility. The cross-border interconnectors play a significant role in determining price levels and volatility dynamics. This underscores the important role of strategic provisions and investment in the connectivity within the NEM to ensure the reliable and effective delivery of renewable energy generation. Regulatory interventions, such as the carbon pricing mechanism and nationwide lockdown restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, also had a measurable impact on electricity price dynamics.

澳大利亚的国家电力市场 (NEM) 正在经历世界上最快、最显着的向可变可再生能源发电的转变之一。这种转变对系统安全性和可靠性提出了挑战，并引发了电价的可变性和不确定性增加。通过采用指数广义自回归条件异方差 (eGARCH) 模型，我们衡量了风力发电对 NEM 中电价动态的影响。我们发现，风力发电量每增加 1 GWh，每日价格将下降 1.3 澳元/兆瓦时，通常会使价格波动增加 2%。除了消费和天然气价格之外，水力发电还导致电价上涨及其波动。跨境互连器在确定价格水平和波动动态方面发挥着重要作用。这强调了战略规定和投资在 NEM 内部连通性中的重要作用，以确保可靠和有效地提供可再生能源发电。监管干预措施，例如碳定价机制和因 COVID-19 大流行而导致的全国封锁限制，也对电价动态产生了可衡量的影响。