We perform a model-based analysis of the impact of a renewable hydrogen quota on EU gas and electricity markets. By comparing a scenario in which a renewable hydrogen quota with tradable certificates is imposed on final gas consumption in the sectors of the economy outside the EU emissions trading system with a reference scenario without a quota, we assess price, quantity and welfare effects. Our model simulations show that the hydrogen quota leads to a significant expansion in renewable electricity generating capacity to produce renewable hydrogen and synthetic methane with power-to-gas technologies. On the electricity market, the price increases substantially, rising by up to 12% – mostly due to increasing emission allowance prices – leading to a higher surplus for power producers. The quota’s primary beneficiaries in the power sector are renewable energy producers. On the gas market, the quota leads to a small decrease in prices (by a maximum of -3%) and gas producer surpluses. Quota obliged gas consumers, mainly households, commercial and small industrial consumers, carry the largest part of the burden associated with the obligation. Overall, the quota leads to the redistribution of welfare from these consumers to renewable electricity generators and power-to-gas producers and a significant decline in total welfare.

我们对可再生氢配额对欧盟天然气和电力市场的影响进行了基于模型的分析。通过将可再生氢配额和可交易证书对欧盟排放交易体系以外的经济部门的最终天然气消费强加的情景与没有配额的参考情景进行比较，我们评估了价格、数量和福利影响。我们的模型模拟表明，氢配额导致可再生发电能力的显着扩大，以利用电转气技术生产可再生氢和合成甲烷。在电力市场上，价格大幅上涨，涨幅高达 12%——主要是由于排放配额价格上涨——导致电力生产商的盈余增加。该配额在电力部门的主要受益者是可再生能源生产商。在天然气市场上，配额导致价格小幅下降（最多 -3%）和天然气生产商盈余。有配额义务的天然气消费者，主要是家庭、商业和小型工业消费者，承担着与该义务相关的最大部分负担。总体而言，配额导致这些消费者的福利重新分配给可再生发电机和电转气生产商，并导致总福利显着下降。