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Projecting the sexual minority population: Methods, data, and illustrative projections for Australia (by Tom Wilson, Jeromey Temple, Anthony Lyons)
Demographic Research ( IF 2.005 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-29 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.12
Tom Wilson , Jeromey Temple , Anthony Lyons

BACKGROUND
Attitudes to sexual minorities have undergone a transformation in many Western countries in recent decades. With much greater public acceptance, and an increase in policies and legislation to support equality and outlaw discrimination, the need for population statistics on sexual minority populations has grown. However, such statistics remain rare: Only a few sets of population estimates have been produced in a small number of countries, and there are no population projections of which we are aware.

OBJECTIVE
The aims of this paper are to introduce a model for producing projections of a national population by sexual identity, suggest ways in which data and conceptual limitations can be handled, and present illustrative population projections for Australia.

METHODS
An adapted multistate cohort-component is described, along with various data sources and approaches for preparing plausible projection assumptions. Two illustrative scenarios for the future of Australia’s sexual minority population over the 2016–2041 period are presented.

RESULTS
According to the selected scenarios, Australia’s sexual minority population is projected to increase rapidly over the coming decades, rising from 0.65 million in 2016 to between 1.25 and 1.57 million by 2041. This growth is generated by sexual minority cohort flow – the gradual replacement of cohorts with lower proportions of sexual minority identification by those with the higher proportions – and identification change. The overall share of the population identifying with a sexual minority identity is likely to increase.

CONCLUSIONS
Although the projections remain illustrative and approximate, the likely coming growth of the sexual minority population signals multiple social, health, and economic policy implications ahead.



中文翻译:

预测性少数群体:澳大利亚的方法、数据和说明性预测(作者:Tom Wilson、Jeromey Temple、Anthony Lyons)

背景
近几十年来,许多西方国家对性少数群体的态度发生了转变。随着公众接受度的提高,以及支持平等和取缔歧视的政策和立法的增加,对性少数群体的人口统计的需求也在增长。然而,这样的统计数据仍然很少:在少数国家只产生了几组人口估计数,并且没有我们所知道的人口预测。

目标 本文
的目的是介绍一个模型,用于根据性别认同对全国人口进行预测,提出处理数据和概念限制的方法,并展示澳大利亚的说明性人口预测。

方法
描述了一个经过调整的多状态队列组件,以及用于准备合理预测假设的各种数据源和方法。介绍了 2016-2041 年期间澳大利亚性少数群体未来的两种说明性情景。

结果
根据选定的情景,澳大利亚的性少数人口预计在未来几十年将迅速增加,从 2016 年的 65 万增加到 2041 年的 1.25 至 157 万。这种增长是由性少数群体流动产生的 - 性少数群体的逐渐取代性少数群体认同比例较低的群体被比例较高的群体认同——并且认同发生了变化。认同性少数群体身份的总人口比例可能会增加。

结论
尽管预测仍然是说明性的和近似的,但性少数人口可能即将到来的增长预示着未来的多重社会、健康和经济政策影响。

更新日期:2021-09-08
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