BACKGROUND
Research on annual migration between regions of the same country is scarce because statistical sources are often lacking. Consequently, little is known about migration between French regions during the Second World War.

OBJECTIVE
Propose a new method to estimate the annual populations of each region and deduce the annual migration flows between regions of the same country. Use this method to present the chronology of inter-regional migration flows in France during the Second World War.

METHODS
Annual regional populations are estimated using census populations and death-by-cause statistics at the local level. Death-by-cause statistics can be used to dissociate symmetrical mortality, which trends in the same way in the national territory, from asymmetrical mortality, which trends differently. This makes it possible to deduce the trend in the mortality rate and populations at the local level.

RESULTS
Analysis of French migration reveals that (1) a large proportion of the population (up to 60%) was displaced from the north to the south in 1940 and 1941; (2) the demarcation line did not prevent population movements; (3) the demographic scars of war were still present in 1946 since not all the refugees from the northwest and northeast returned.



中文翻译：

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超越 1940 年 5 月至 6 月的外流：第二次世界大战期间法国的国内移民（弗洛里安·邦内着）

背景
由于缺乏统计资料，对同一国家地区之间每年迁移的研究很少。因此，人们对二战期间法国地区之间的移民知之甚少。

目的
提出一种新的方法来估计每个地区的年人口并推导出同一国家地区之间的年迁移流量。使用这种方法来呈现二战期间法国区域间移民流动的年表。

方法
年度区域人口是使用地方一级的人口普查人口和死因统计数据估算的。死因统计可用于将对称死亡率（在全国范围内趋势相同）与非对称死亡率（趋势不同）区分开来。这使得推断当地死亡率和人口的趋势成为可能。

结果
对法国移民的分析表明：(1) 1940 年和 1941 年有很大比例的人口（高达 60%）从北向南迁移；(2) 分界线没有阻止人口流动；(3) 战争造成的人口伤痕在 1946 年仍然存在，因为并非所有来自西北和东北的难民都返回了。