Rumors affect a variety of human affairs, which may cause a serious social disorder. In order to accurately simulate the propagation dynamics of rumors in real social networks and effectively ameliorate the harm of rumors to society, a new rumor propagation model is proposed in this paper. The model considers the influence of discussants, and divides the total population into four groups: ignorances, discussants, spreaders, and removers. The equilibria and basic reproduction number of the model are calculated, and the local and global asymptotic stability and the transcritical bifurcation of the equilibria are analyzed and proved. The theoretical analysis reveals the dynamic behavior and mechanism of rumor propagation. The parameters of the model are estimated by least-squares fitting, and the rumor spreading process is predicted according to the fitted parameters. The model is verified by using a rumor actual dataset. Simulation results show that the R-squared is 0.9544, which means that the proposed model can accurately simulate the rumor propagation in real social networks. By comparing the proposed model and the existing ones, the outcome indicates that discussants have an important impact on the rumor propagation process.

谣言影响人类的各种事务，可能造成严重的社会混乱。为了准确模拟真实社交网络中谣言的传播动态，有效减轻谣言对社会的危害，本文提出了一种新的谣言传播模型。该模型考虑了讨论者的影响，并将总人口分为四组：无知者、讨论者、传播者和移除者。计算了模型的平衡点和基本再生数，分析证明了平衡点的局部和全局渐近稳定性和跨临界分岔。理论分析揭示了谣言传播的动态行为和机制。模型参数通过最小二乘拟合估计，根据拟合参数预测谣言传播过程。该模型通过使用谣言实际数据集进行验证。仿真结果表明，R平方为0.9544，这意味着所提出的模型可以准确地模拟真实社交网络中的谣言传播。通过比较所提出的模型和现有模型，结果表明讨论者对谣言传播过程有重要影响。