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Projection of future daily global horizontal irradiance under four RCP scenarios: An assessment through newly developed temperature and rainfall-based empirical model
Solar Energy ( IF 6.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2021.08.049
Suman Samanta , Saon Banerjee , Pulak Kumar Patra , Vinay Kumar Sehgal , Abbhijit Chowdhury , Balwant Kumar , Asis Mukherjee

Demand for solar energy is increasing due to its clean nature in contrast to conventional fossil fuel sources and lowering of the cost harvesting solar energy. Consequently, it’s important to assess the spatio-temporal distribution and future projection of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) under future climate scenarios. However, due to the absence of high-quality ground observations, whether related to the measuring site accessibility or the associated high cost of equipment, it’s generally difficult to get GHI at the desired spatial interval. Empirical calibrated models may be used for estimating GHI using other local meteorological parameters available at finer spatial interval. The present study compared the performance of four popular empirical models including a newly proposed MND model with an intention to reduce model complexity. The models are calibrated and validated over nineteen locations spread over four climatic zones of India. The results reveal that the MND model performs more efficiently than the other three models. Statistical parameters also confirm the accuracy level of MND. Four sets of common coefficients are generated for projection of daily GHI in any location of the respective four zones. Finally, temperature and rainfall data sets projected by the CMIP5 models, corresponding to 23 locations across the West Bengal State, are used to produce GHI for four future periods under four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios. Simulated results support the view of having less GHI availability in the near future. In general, the whole State might experience a deficit in annual mean daily GHI by ≥1 MJ m-2day−1.



中文翻译:

四种 RCP 情景下未来全球每日水平辐照度的预测:通过新开发的基于温度和降雨的经验模型进行评估

与传统的化石燃料来源相比,太阳能的清洁性质以及收集太阳能的成本降低,因此对太阳能的需求正在增加。因此,评估未来气候情景下全球水平辐照度 (GHI) 的时空分布和未来预测非常重要。然而,由于缺乏高质量的地面观测,无论是与测量站点的可达性还是相关的设备成本高,通常很难在所需的空间间隔内获得 GHI。经验校准模型可用于使用其他更精细空间间隔可用的当地气象参数来估计 GHI。本研究比较了四种流行的经验模型的性能,包括新提出的 M ND旨在降低模型复杂性的模型。这些模型在分布在印度四个气候带的 19 个地点进行了校准和验证。结果表明,M ND模型比其他三个模型执行效率更高。统计参数也证实了M ND的准确度. 生成四组共同系数,用于在相应四个区域的任何位置投影每日 GHI。最后,CMIP5 模型预测的温度和降雨数据集对应于西孟加拉邦的 23 个地点,用于在四个代表性浓度路径情景下生成未来四个时期的 GHI。模拟结果支持在不久的将来减少 GHI 可用性的观点。一般而言,整个州的年平均每日 GHI 可能会出现 ≥1 MJ m -2-1的赤字。

更新日期:2021-09-07
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