Evidence on prognostic factors associated with progression to total hip replacement (THR) in hip osteoarthritis (OA) is for the most patient- and disease-specific characteristics either conflicting or inconclusive. Therefore, the objectives of this study of participants with hip OA enrolled in a structured program of supervised education and exercise therapy were to describe the rate of THR and to identify prognostic factors for receiving THR within the following 2 years. Participants aged ≥ 45 years with hip OA enrolled in Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark (GLA:D®) from July 2014 to March 2017 were included. Potential prognostic factors included demographic and disease-specific baseline characteristics and measures of physical activity and quality of life (QoL). Information on THR was retrieved from The Danish National Patient Registry. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was developed. Of 3657 included participants, 30% received a THR within 2 years. Of the 100 participants already wait-listed for THR, 60% had the procedure. Of 22 candidate prognostic factors, 14 were statistically significant for receiving THR. Factors associated with a faster rate of THR included being “male” (HR 1.43), having “self-reported radiographic hip OA” (HR 2.32), being “wait-listed for THR” (HR 2.17), and having a higher “pain intensity” (HR 1.01). In contrast, faster “walking speed” (HR 0.64), better “hip-related QoL” (HR 0.98), and having “three or more comorbidities” (HR 0.62) were predictive of a slower rate of THR. During the 2-year follow-up period, 30% of the cohort received a THR. Notably, 40% of those wait-listed for THR when entering the program did not receive THR within 2 years. A number of baseline prognostic factors for receiving THR were identified.

中文翻译：

---

参加监督教育和运动治疗的参与者在 2 年内全髋关节置换的预后因素：一项对 3657 名髋关节骨关节炎参与者的预后研究

与髋骨关节炎 (OA) 进展为全髋关节置换术 (THR) 相关的预后因素的证据是针对大多数患者和疾病特异性特征的，要么相互矛盾，要么不确定。因此，本研究对参与监督教育和运动治疗的结构化计划的髋关节 OA 参与者进行研究，目的是描述 THR 的发生率，并确定在接下来的 2 年内接受 THR 的预后因素。纳入 2014 年 7 月至 2017 年 3 月在丹麦 (GLA:D®) 参加骨关节炎 Good Life 的≥45 岁髋关节 OA 参与者。潜在的预后因素包括人口统计学和疾病特定的基线特征以及身体活动和生活质量 (QoL) 的测量。关于 THR 的信息是从丹麦国家患者登记处检索的。开发了多变量 Cox 比例风险模型。在 3657 名参与者中，30% 的人在 2 年内接受了 THR。在已经等待 THR 的 100 名参与者中，60% 进行了手术。在 22 个候选预后因素中，14 个对接受 THR 具有统计学意义。与更快的 THR 率相关的因素包括“男性”（HR 1.43）、“自我报告的放射影像髋关节 OA”（HR 2.32）、“等待 THR”（HR 2.17）以及具有更高的“疼痛强度”（HR 1.01）。相比之下，更快的“步行速度”（HR 0.64）、更好的“髋关节相关 QoL”（HR 0.98）和“三种或更多合并症”（HR 0.62）预示着 THR 发生率较低。在 2 年的随访期间，30% 的队列接受了 THR。尤其，40% 的人在进入该计划时等待 THR 的人在 2 年内没有收到 THR。确定了许多接受 THR 的基线预后因素。