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Time trends in ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality over three decades (1990-2019) in 20 Western European countries: systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.
European Journal of Preventive Cardiology ( IF 8.3 ) Pub Date : 2022-03-11 , DOI: 10.1093/eurjpc/zwab134
Federico Vancheri 1 , Anne Rosemary Tate 2 , Michael Henein 3 , Lars Backlund 4 , Chiara Donfrancesco 5 , Luigi Palmieri 5 , Lars-Erik Strender 6
Affiliation  

AIMS To investigate and compare changes in the rates of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and mortality between 1990 and 2019 in 20 high-income Western European countries with similar public health systems and low cardiovascular risk. METHODS AND RESULTS The 2020 updated version of the Global Burden of Disease database was searched. Variability and differences in IHD incidence and mortality rates (per 100 000) between countries over time, were calculated. A piecewise linear (join point) regression model was used to identify the slopes of these trends and the points in time at which significant changes in the trends occur. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and mortality rates varied widely between countries but decreased for all between 1990 and 2019. The relative change was greater for mortality than for incidence. Ischaemic heart disease incidence rates declined by approximately 36% between 1990 and 2019, while mortality declined by approximately 60%. Breakpoint analysis showed that the largest decreases in incidence and mortality occurred between 1990 and 2009 (-32%, -52%, respectively), with a much slower decrease after that (-5.9%, -17.6%, respectively), and even a slight increase for some countries in recent years. The decline in both incidence and mortality was lower in the Mediterranean European countries compared to the Nordic and Central European regions. CONCLUSIONS In the Western European countries studied, the decline in age-standardized IHD incidence over three decades was slower than the decline in age-standardized IHD mortality. Decreasing trends of both IHD incidence and mortality has substantially slowed, and for some countries flattened, in more recent years.

中文翻译:

20 个西欧国家 30 年(1990-2019 年)缺血性心脏病发病率和死亡率的时间趋势:2019 年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析。

目的 调查和比较 20 个公共卫生系统相似且心血管风险较低的高收入西欧国家 1990 年至 2019 年缺血性心脏病 (IHD) 发病率和死亡率的变化。方法与结果检索2020年更新版全球疾病负担数据库。计算了国家间 IHD 发病率和死亡率(每 100 000 人)随时间的变化和差异。使用分段线性(连接点)回归模型来确定这些趋势的斜率以及趋势发生显着变化的时间点。缺血性心脏病的发病率和死亡率在各国之间差异很大,但在 1990 年至 2019 年间均有所下降。死亡率的相对变化大于发病率。1990 年至 2019 年间,缺血性心脏病发病率下降了约 36%,而死亡率下降了约 60%。断点分析显示,发病率和死亡率下降幅度最大的是 1990 年至 2009 年(分别为-32%、-52%),之后下降速度要慢得多(分别为-5.9%、-17.6%),甚至近年来一些国家略有增加。与北欧和中欧地区相比,地中海欧洲国家的发病率和死亡率下降幅度均较低。结论 在所研究的西欧国家中,30 年来年龄标准化 IHD 发病率的下降速度慢于年龄标准化 IHD 死亡率的下降速度。IHD 发病率和死亡率的下降趋势已大大放缓,并且对于一些国家而言趋于平缓,
更新日期:2021-09-06
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