Electric Vehicles (EVs) are regarded as a feasible solution to achieving decarbonisation in the transportation sector. However, EVs powered by fossil dominated energy sources may offer a discounted solution. This paper presents a comparative study of Australian and New Zealand’s vehicle markets on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and energy consumption using well-to-wheel analysis. A vehicle uptake projection model is proposed to predict future uptake of EVs and associated emissions under three scenarios with different mix of EVs. Our empirical results suggest that, with the current electricity mix, in terms of energy consumption, Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) perform better than other types in New Zealand and Australia. Emission wise, BEVs emit 90% less GHG than the second-best option Plug-in EV in New Zealand, and 40% less than the second-best, Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs), in Australia. In the long run, as more “green hydrogen” is produced, FCEVs will play a critical role in minimising emissions. Emissions in the two countries are predicted to reach their peak around 2030, provided that BEVs form the major portion of the EV mix with a higher penetration of renewables and more FCEVs enter the fleet. The empirical outcomes provide important policy insights to support decision making.

电动汽车 (EV) 被认为是实现交通领域脱碳的可行解决方案。然而，由化石主导能源驱动的电动汽车可能会提供打折的解决方案。本文使用井到轮分析对澳大利亚和新西兰的汽车市场在温室气体 (GHG) 排放和能源消耗方面进行了比较研究。提出了一种车辆吸收预测模型，以预测在具有不同电动汽车组合的三种情况下未来电动汽车的吸收和相关排放。我们的实证结果表明，在目前的电力组合中，就能源消耗而言，纯电动汽车 (BEV) 在新西兰和澳大利亚的表现优于其他类型。在排放方面，BEV 排放的温室气体比新西兰第二好的插电式电动汽车少 90%，比第二好的少 40%，澳大利亚的燃料电池电动汽车 (FCEV)。从长远来看，随着更多“绿色氢”的产生，FCEV 将在减少排放方面发挥关键作用。预计两国的排放量将在 2030 年左右达到峰值，前提是纯电动汽车构成电动汽车组合的主要部分，可再生能源的渗透率更高，并且更多 FCEV 进入车队。实证结果为支持决策提供了重要的政策见解。