In recent years, underground pipeline leakage occurs frequently in urban regions, which seriously reduces the soil-structure stability in the vicinity of the leakage. In this paper, a numerical study about pipeline leakage-induced instability of adjacent excavation earth retaining wall (EERW) is carried out. To reflect the phenomenon of soil strength degradation when encountering leakage water, the relationship between soil strength parameters and saturation is established by using an empirical formula, which is then implemented in Abaqus via the USDFLD subroutine. After verifying the proposed simulation method, the instability time of EERW under different burial depths of the leakage pipeline is presented. In order to reflect the influence of underlying geotechnical uncertainties on the EERW performance and to improve the probabilistic computational efficiency, the neural network is used as a surrogate model to replace the tedious finite element modeling, and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is used to calculate the time-dependent failure probability of the retaining structure. Extensive sensitivity analyses are carried out to explore the effect of random variables on the failure probabilities. Compared with the unsaturated soil permeability coefficient, the increase of the initial pipeline pressure has more pronounced influence on the stability of EERW, and the initial saturation shows completely different forms in the early and late stages of water leakage.

近年来，地下管线渗漏在城市地区频繁发生，严重降低了渗漏附近土体结构的稳定性。在本文中，对相邻开挖挡土墙（EERW）管道泄漏引起的失稳进行了数值研究。为了反映遇到渗漏水时土体强度下降的现象，采用经验公式建立土体强度参数与饱和度的关系，然后在Abaqus中通过USDFLD子程序实现。在验证了所提出的模拟方法后，给出了泄漏管道不同埋藏深度下EERW的不稳定时间。为了反映潜在岩土不确定性对EERW性能的影响，提高概率计算效率，采用神经网络作为替代模型，取代繁琐的有限元建模，采用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）进行计算挡土结构随时间变化的失效概率。进行了广泛的敏感性分析以探索随机变量对失效概率的影响。与非饱和土渗透系数相比，管道初始压力的增加对EERW稳定性的影响更为显着，且初始饱和在渗漏水的早期和晚期表现出完全不同的形式。采用神经网络作为替代模型，取代繁琐的有限元建模，采用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）计算挡土结构的瞬态失效概率。进行了广泛的敏感性分析以探索随机变量对失效概率的影响。与非饱和土渗透系数相比，管道初始压力的增加对EERW稳定性的影响更为显着，且初始饱和在渗漏水的早期和晚期表现出完全不同的形式。采用神经网络作为替代模型，取代繁琐的有限元建模，采用蒙特卡罗模拟（MCS）计算挡土结构的瞬态失效概率。进行了广泛的敏感性分析以探索随机变量对失效概率的影响。与非饱和土渗透系数相比，管道初始压力的增加对EERW稳定性的影响更为显着，且初始饱和在渗漏水的早期和晚期表现出完全不同的形式。