For the high-demand operating safety and flight safety, the hysteresis dead-zone as a health indicator (HI) related to backlash abrasion is proposed for health monitoring and prediction of aircraft mechanical control systems (MCSs). First, a multi-backlash mass-damper-spring (MDS) model is built for MCSs degradation simulation to demonstrate the HI’s validity. Then, by comparing with Prandtl-Ishlinskii (PI), generalized PI (GPI), and Preisach model, the Backlash-like-PSO model gets the best results on criteria of correlation index (R²) and root mean square error (RMSE). The Backlash-like-PSO model is innovatively adopted for HI extraction. Finally, compared with several generally used approaches, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach is designated for the MCSs degradation prediction based on HI, depending on its better prediction accuracy and smoother degradation trend by performance estimation on RMSE, R², etc. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method are validated by the practical flight data.

为了高要求的操作安全和飞行安全，提出了滞后死区作为与齿隙磨损相关的健康指标（HI），用于飞机机械控制系统（MCS）的健康监测和预测。首先，为 MCS 退化模拟建立了一个多齿隙质量阻尼器弹簧 (MDS) 模型，以证明 HI 的有效性。然后，通过与 Prandtl-Ishlinskii (PI)、广义 PI (GPI) 和 Preisach 模型进行比较，Backlash-like-PSO 模型在相关指数 (R ²) 和均方根误差 (RMSE)。创新性地采用 Backlash-like-PSO 模型进行 HI 提取。最后，与几种常用的方法相比，高斯过程回归（GPR）方法被指定用于基于 HI 的 MCSs 退化预测，这取决于其更好的预测精度和更平滑的退化趋势，通过对 RMSE、R ²等的性能估计。实际飞行数据验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。