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Affirmative Action, Mismatch, and Economic Mobility after California’s Proposition 209*
The Quarterly Journal of Economics ( IF 13.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-01 , DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjab027
Zachary Bleemer 1
Affiliation  

Abstract
Proposition 209 banned race-based affirmative action at California public universities in 1998. Using a difference-in-differences research design and a newly constructed longitudinal database linking all 1994–2002 University of California applicants to their educational experiences and wages, I show that ending affirmative action caused underrepresented minority (URM) freshman applicants to cascade into lower-quality colleges. The “mismatch hypothesis” implies that this cascade would provide net educational benefits to URM applicants, but their degree attainment declined overall and in STEM fields, especially among less academically qualified applicants. URM applicants’ average wages in their twenties and thirties subsequently declined, driven by declines among Hispanic applicants. These declines are not explained by URM students' performance or persistence in STEM course sequences, which were unchanged after Prop 209. Ending affirmative action also deterred thousands of qualified URM students from applying to any UC campus. Complementary regression discontinuity and institutional value-added analyses suggest that affirmative action’s net educational and wage benefits for URM applicants exceed its net costs for on-the-margin white and Asian applicants.


中文翻译:

加州 209 号提案后的平权行动、错配和经济流动性*

摘要
209 号提案于 1998 年禁止加州公立大学基于种族的平权行动。使用差异研究设计和新构建的纵向数据库,将所有 1994-2002 年加州大学申请者与其教育经历和工资联系起来,我表明结束平权行动导致代表性不足的少数族裔 (URM) 新生申请者级联进入质量较低的大学。“不匹配假设”意味着这种级联将为 URM 申请人提供净教育收益,但他们的学位获得率总体下降,在 STEM 领域,尤其是在学术资格较低的申请人中。URM 申请人在 20 多岁和 30 多岁时的平均工资随后下降,这是由于西班牙裔申请人的下降所致。URM 学生无法解释这些下降 在 STEM 课程序列中的表现或持久性,在 209 号提案之后没有改变。结束平权行动也阻止了数千名合格的 URM 学生申请任何加州大学校园。互补回归不连续性和机构增值分析表明,平权行动对 URM 申请人的净教育和工资收益超过了边缘白人和亚洲申请人的净成本。
更新日期:2021-09-01
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