Although building more housing near transit has gained increasing popularity as a strategy for addressing housing unaffordability while promoting sustainability, the effectiveness of this strategy has remained unclear, particularly in auto-oriented metropolises where land use planning authority largely rests with local governments. This article provides an analysis of how parcel-level residential land use intensification takes place under the influence of public transit expansion, with explicit attention to the interactions between current and planned land use changes, in a five-county Southern California region. The analysis using a generalized structural equation modeling approach shows that residential properties are more likely to be densified in transit-rich areas. This tendency is detected not only in the existing high-quality transit areas but also in locations where transit services will be available in the future. It is also found that relaxing zoning restrictions increases the probability of parcel-level densification, and the resultant density increase can induce further zoning or plan changes in nearby areas.

尽管在交通运输附近建造更多住房作为解决住房负担不起同时促进可持续性的策略越来越受欢迎，但该策略的有效性仍不清楚，特别是在土地使用规划权主要由地方政府掌握的以汽车为导向的大都市。本文分析了在公共交通扩张的影响下如何发生地块级住宅用地集约化，并明确关注南加州五县地区当前和计划土地利用变化之间的相互作用。使用广义结构方程建模方法的分析表明，住宅物业更有可能在交通丰富的地区更加密集。这种趋势不仅在现有的优质公交区域，而且在未来将提供公交服务的地点都存在。还发现放宽分区限制会增加宗地级致密化的可能性，由此产生的密度增加会导致附近区域的进一步分区或规划变化。