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Farmer flexibility concerning future rotation planning is affected by the framing of climate predictions
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100356
Miranda S. Bane 1, 2 , Michael J.O. Pocock 1 , Caroline Gibert 3 , Matthieu Forster 4, 5 , Geoffroy Oudoire 4, 6 , Stéphane A.P. Derocles 4, 7 , David A. Bohan 4
Affiliation  

Arable crops are typically grown in annual rotations. Diverse rotations can deliver ecosystem services, provide economic resilience, and support adaptation to climate change. Our aim was to assess farmers’ attitudes to planning and diversifying crop rotations, focusing on their responses in the face of contrasting climate viewpoints.

We interviewed 75 farmers from four regions along a latitudinal gradient from the south of the UK to the south of France. We used a semi-structured questionnaire with face-to-face interviews and asked farmers to respond to two narrative viewpoints of climate change impacts: one viewpoint focused on opportunities, the other on constraints.

We found in all four regions that farmers’ use rotations, and the crops within rotations, to achieve their main objectives of financial stability and improved soil health. Most farmers (79–100% depending on region) said they had experienced climate change, and many (54–83%) had already implemented changes in their farming practices. We did not find a difference in these results based on latitude. However, farmers’ self-reported outlook was mostly optimistic in southern UK and become progressively more pessimistic further south. When presented with a viewpoint of climate change impacts focusing on opportunities, more farmers were likely to diversify and lengthen rotations, and fewer were likely to shorten them, compared to a viewpoint presenting constraints from these impacts.

Crucially, here we show that the presentation of climate change affects the ways in which farmers predict how they will respond to climate change. Diversified rotations align with multiple other economic and environmental benefits. Therefore, it is essential to consider the way in which climate change impacts are communicated, and the effect this has farmers’ behavior, when designing measures to support environmentally sustainable adaptation to climate change.



中文翻译:

农民关于未来轮作计划的灵活性受到气候预测框架的影响

可耕作物通常每年轮作种植。多样化的轮换可以提供生态系统服务,提供经济弹性,并支持对气候变化的适应。我们的目标是评估农民对规划和多样化作物轮作的态度,重点关注他们面对截然不同的气候观点时的反应。

我们沿着从英国南部到法国南部的纬度梯度采访了来自四个地区的 75 名农民。我们使用了带有面对面访谈的半结构化问卷,并要求农民对气候变化影响的两种叙述观点做出回应:一种观点关注机会,另一种观点关注制约因素。

我们发现在所有四个地区,农民使用轮作和轮作中的作物来实现其财政稳定和改善土壤健康的主要目标。大多数农民(79-100% 取决于地区)表示他们经历了气候变化,许多(54-83%)已经改变了他们的耕作方式。我们没有发现基于纬度的这些结果存在差异。然而,农民自我报告的前景在英国南部大多是乐观的,而在更远的南部则逐渐变得更加悲观。当提出关注机会的气候变化影响观点时,与提出这些影响限制的观点相比,更多的农民可能会多样化并延长轮换时间,而更少的农民可能会缩短轮换时间。

至关重要的是,我们在这里展示了气候变化的表现会影响农民预测他们将如何应对气候变化的方式。多样化的轮换与其他多项经济和环境效益保持一致。因此,在设计支持环境可持续适应气候变化的措施时,必须考虑传达气候变化影响的方式以及这对农民行为的影响。

更新日期:2021-09-02
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