ABSTRACT

Defense in depth is a pillar of nuclear power plant design and it also plays an important factor for the reliability of fuel supply. While most safety systems of a classical light water reactor usually remain unchanged for many years of operation the first and second fission product barrier – the fuel and the cladding – are regularly exchanged by loading fresh fuel assemblies into the reactor core. We review our experience of achieving high reliability in fuel supply by means of real options. The required activities for option creation are explained in detail. Real option valuation is known to be more difficult than financial option valuation and we review the valuation metrics which we found most useful. Due to the incompleteness and illiquidity of the considered option market and due to the barriers of realizing arbitrage, lower and upper bounds are easier to determine than exact option values. Notwithstanding these constraints using concepts based on volatility and stochastic processes in our experience is good practice to avoid naked bets on future power plant availability and avoids the pitfalls of static forecasts.

摘要

纵深防御是核电站设计的支柱，也是燃料供应可靠性的重要因素。虽然经典轻水反应堆的大多数安全系统在运行多年后通常保持不变，但通过将新鲜燃料组件装入反应堆堆芯，定期更换第一和第二裂变产物屏障——燃料和包壳。我们回顾了我们通过实物期权实现高可靠性燃料供应的经验。详细解释了创建选项所需的活动。众所周知，实物期权估值比金融期权估值更困难，我们回顾了我们认为最有用的估值指标。由于所考虑的期权市场的不完整和流动性不足以及实现套利的障碍，下限和上限比确切的期权价值更容易确定。尽管有这些限制，但根据我们的经验，使用基于波动性和随机过程的概念是一种很好的做法，可以避免对未来发电厂的可用性进行赤裸裸的赌注，并避免静态预测的陷阱。