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Reduction of Errors in Hydrological Drought Monitoring – A Novel Statistical Framework for Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Drought
Water Resources Management ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-28 , DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02952-x
Zulfiqar Ali 1 , Guangheng Ni 1 , Asad Ellahi 2, 3 , Ijaz Hussain 2 , Amna Nazeer 4 , Sadia Qamar 5 , Muhammad Faisal 6, 7
Affiliation  

Continuous and accurate drought monitoring has an important role in early warning drought mitigation policies. This study aims to provide an accurate standardized drought monitoring indicator by enhancing the representative characteristics of precipitation data using advanced statistical methods. We proposed a two-phase statistical procedure index – the Regional Multi-Component Gaussian Hydrological Drought Assessment (RMcGHDA) – for accurate drought monitoring under a multi-auxiliary variable-based sampling estimator and K-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model. The first phase of our proposed method increases the regional representativeness of the data under Spatio-temporal settings and the second phase describes the use of the Twelve-Component Gaussian Mixture Distribution (CGMD) model in the standardization stage of SDIs. We applied the proposed framework to 52 meteorological stations in Pakistan and compared the RMcGHDA performance with existing methods using Pearson correlation (r) and spatial patterns of various drought categories. We found significant differences between RMcGHDA and existing methods (i.e., Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)) for drought assessment. By the rationale of the data improvement under-sampling estimator and the use of multi-component Gaussian function, these differences indicate that RMcGHDA provides a practical and accurate way for drought assessment.



中文翻译:

减少水文干旱监测中的错误——干旱时空评估的新统计框架

持续准确的干旱监测在早期预警干旱缓解政策中具有重要作用。本研究旨在通过使用先进的统计方法增强降水数据的代表性特征,提供准确的标准化干旱监测指标。我们提出了一个两阶段统计程序指数——区域多分量高斯水文干旱评估 (RMcGHDA)——用于在基于多辅助变量的采样估计器和 K 分量高斯混合分布 (CGMD) 模型下进行准确的干旱监测。我们提出的方法的第一阶段增加了时空设置下数据的区域代表性,第二阶段描述了十二分量高斯混合分布 (CGMD) 模型在 SDI 标准化阶段的使用。我们将提议的框架应用于巴基斯坦的 52 个气象站,并使用 Pearson 相关 (r) 和各种干旱类别的空间模式将 RMcGHDA 性能与现有方法进行了比较。我们发现 RMcGHDA 与现有的干旱评估方法(即标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水蒸散指数 (SPEI))之间存在显着差异。通过数据改进欠采样估计器的基本原理和多分量高斯函数的使用,这些差异表明 RMcGHDA 为干旱评估提供了一种实用且准确的方法。我们发现 RMcGHDA 与现有的干旱评估方法(即标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水蒸散指数 (SPEI))之间存在显着差异。通过数据改进欠采样估计器的基本原理和多分量高斯函数的使用,这些差异表明 RMcGHDA 为干旱评估提供了一种实用且准确的方法。我们发现 RMcGHDA 与现有的干旱评估方法(即标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水蒸散指数 (SPEI))之间存在显着差异。通过数据改进欠采样估计器的基本原理和多分量高斯函数的使用,这些差异表明 RMcGHDA 为干旱评估提供了一种实用且准确的方法。

更新日期:2021-08-30
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