To understand and characterize the Pacific chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) spatiotemporal distribution in the northern Peruvian Current System, this study characterized the ecological niche using the minimum volume ellipsoid (MVE) approach considering two meteorological conditions jointly: El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN). For this purpose, the species presence records collected by the Peruvian onboard observer program from 1997 to 2018 were used. All presence records were matched with the date (day/month/year) and location (longitude, latitude) of the corresponding oceanographic variables (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity [SSS], chlorophyll, and oxygen). Also, the future projected climate change effects on chub mackerel spatiotemporal distribution under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios by mid- (2040-2050) and end‐of‐the‐century (2090-2100) were investigated. Ellipsoid evaluations demonstrated that models calibrated with SST and SSS had good performance. Projections for EN conditions predicted areas with high environmental suitability close and along the Peruvian coast. Contrastingly, during LN these areas were extended to the oceanic zone. The projected future scenarios showed that for the RCP 4.5 scenario, environmental suitability maps were similar to those found in LN but with persistent distribution in south-central Peru. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, habitats tended to be coastal. Based on climate refugia –areas where the bulk of the species may aggregate under future environmental change with the potential to re-expand once the stress abates–, the RCP 4.5 scenario did not show changes in the hotspots; conversely, the RCP 8.5 scenario predicted a reduction of around 47% of hotspots from 2040-2050 to 2090-2100 at 10° S-18° S. Finally, the consideration of extreme conditions (EN and LN) in model calibration can potentially generate models with good performance allowing to better characterize species niche when the data is restricted by political boundaries. Nevertheless, further testing must be performed to assert this idea.

了解和描述太平洋鲭鱼（Scomber japonicus) 秘鲁北部洋流系统的时空分布，本研究使用最小体积椭球 (MVE) 方法表征生态位，同时考虑两种气象条件：厄尔尼诺现象 (EN) 和拉尼娜现象 (LN)。为此，使用了秘鲁船上观察员计划从 1997 年到 2018 年收集的物种存在记录。所有存在记录都与相应海洋变量（海面温度 [SST]、海面盐度 [SSS]、叶绿素和氧气）的日期（日/月/年）和位置（经度、纬度）相匹配。此外，还研究了在代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5 情景下，到世纪中 (2040-2050) 和世纪末 (2090-2100) 未来预计气候变化对鲭鱼时空分布的影响。椭球评估表明，使用 SST 和 SSS 校准的模型具有良好的性能。EN 条件的预测预测了秘鲁海岸附近和沿线具有高环境适宜性的区域。相比之下，在 LN 期间，这些区域扩展到了大洋区。预测的未来情景显示，对于 RCP 4.5 情景，环境适宜性图与 LN 中发现的相似，但持续分布在秘鲁中南部。对于 RCP 8.5 情景，栖息地往往是沿海的。基于气候避难所——大部分物种在未来环境变化下可能聚集的区域，一旦压力减弱，就有可能重新扩张——，RCP 4.5 情景没有显示热点的变化；相反，RCP 8。5 情景预测从 2040-2050 年到 2090-2100 年 10° S-18° S 的热点减少了约 47%。最后，在模型校准中考虑极端条件（EN 和 LN）可能会生成具有良好性能的模型当数据受到政治边界的限制时，可以更好地描述物种生态位。然而，必须进行进一步的测试来断言这个想法。