Abstract–

The paper provides a short historical overview of sunspot observations from their discovery until the present. The review goes beyond collecting all known historical information about the study of sunspots but highlights the research of five scientists of different epochs over five centuries since the 16th. Not as much attention is deliberately given to some well-known studies and discoveries. The focus is on the utmost long-term observations of sunspots, which provide information that expands the boundaries of classical Wolf numbers or the number of sunspots groups. Sunspots have been observed since ancient times and they were documented in ancient chronicles. Active observation of sunspots began after the invention of the telescope, probably by Hans Lippershey in the early 17th century. It is documented that Thomas Harriot was the first to observe sunspots with a telescope on December 8, 1610. It is probable that Galileo Galilei and Johann Fabricius observed sunspots almost simultaneously with him in December 1610 using a telescope, independently of each other and of Harriot. The first publication about sunspots was issued by Fabricius in June 1611. We dwell on the observations of Christoph Scheiner, Christian Horrebow, Heinrich Schwabe, and Hisako Koyama. Christoph Scheiner described his long-term observations and studies of sunspots from 1611 to 1630 in his book Rosa Ursina sive Sol, which became a model for the Sun observers for many years afterwards. Christian Horrebow was the first to speculate on the regularity of sunspots, and Heinrich Schwabe was the first in 1843 to discover the periodicity (with a period of approximately 10 years) of the number of groups of sunspots. In 1852 Rudolf Wolf, analyzing all available sources, clarified that solar activity has an 11-year periodicity. He introduced the concept of the relative sunspot number and organized regular observations and publication of their results. Hisako Koyama’s 40-year observations have helped reconcile current sunspot counts with earlier ones. Wolf’s system lasted until the beginning of the 21st century. In July 2015, a new version of the relative sunspot numbers was adopted (Version 2.0). In this paper, the ratio of “new” and “old” Wolf numbers is calculated and a table of characteristics of 11‑year cycles according to Version 2.0 is proposed. Two forecasts of the maximum of solar cycle 25 are also calculated. In the case when the precursor of the maximum is the value of the relative sunspot number in the cycle minimum (correlation coefficient r = 0.557 and P < 0.001), the predicted maximum is 135.5 ± 33.8. In the second case, when the precursor is the duration of the previous cycle (r = –0.686 and P < 0.001), the predicted maximum is 179.4 ± 18.2. Both predictions indicate that solar cycle 25 will be stronger than solar cycle 24 and weaker than solar cycle 23.

中文翻译：

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太阳黑子研究的历史和太阳活动周期最大值的预测 25

摘要-

该论文简要介绍了从发现太阳黑子到现在的太阳黑子观测历史。该评论不仅收集了有关太阳黑子研究的所有已知历史信息，还突出了自 16 世纪以来五个世纪以来不同时代的五位科学家的研究。对一些著名的研究和发现并没有刻意给予太多关注。重点是对太阳黑子的最长期观测，这提供了扩展经典沃尔夫数或太阳黑子群数量边界的信息。太阳黑子自古以来就被观察到，它们在古代编年史中有记载。太阳黑子的主动观测始于望远镜的发明，很可能是汉斯·利珀希 (Hans Lippershey) 在 17 世纪早期发明的。据记载，托马斯·哈里奥特于 1610 年 12 月 8 日是第一个用望远镜观测太阳黑子的人。 伽利略·伽利莱和约翰·法布里修斯很可能在 1610 年 12 月使用望远镜几乎与他同时观测太阳黑子，彼此独立，与哈里奥特无关. Fabricius 于 1611 年 6 月出版了第一本关于太阳黑子的出版物。我们详细介绍了 Christoph Scheiner、Christian Horrebow、Heinrich Schwabe 和 Hisako Koyama 的观察结果。Christoph Scheiner 在他的书中描述了他从 1611 年到 1630 年对太阳黑子的长期观察和研究 Fabricius 于 1611 年 6 月出版了第一本关于太阳黑子的出版物。我们详细介绍了 Christoph Scheiner、Christian Horrebow、Heinrich Schwabe 和 Hisako Koyama 的观察结果。Christoph Scheiner 在他的书中描述了他从 1611 年到 1630 年对太阳黑子的长期观察和研究 Fabricius 于 1611 年 6 月出版了第一本关于太阳黑子的出版物。我们详细介绍了 Christoph Scheiner、Christian Horrebow、Heinrich Schwabe 和 Hisako Koyama 的观察结果。Christoph Scheiner 在他的书中描述了他从 1611 年到 1630 年对太阳黑子的长期观察和研究Rosa Ursina sive Sol，这成为后来多年太阳观测者的典范。Christian Horrebow 是第一个推测太阳黑子规律的人，Heinrich Schwabe 是 1843 年第一个发现太阳黑子群数量周期性（周期约为 10 年）的人。1852 年，鲁道夫·沃尔夫（Rudolf Wolf）分析了所有可用的来源，阐明太阳活动的周期为 11 年。他引入了相对太阳黑子数的概念，并组织了定期观测并公布了他们的结果。Hisako Koyama 40 年的观测帮助协调了当前的太阳黑子数量与早期的数量。沃尔夫的系统一直持续到 21 世纪初。2015 年 7 月，采用了新版本的相对太阳黑子数（2.0 版）。在本文中，计算了“新”和“旧”沃尔夫数的比率，并根据 2.0 版提出了 11 年周期的特征表。还计算了太阳活动周期 25 最大值的两次预报。如果最大值的前兆是周期最小值中相对太阳黑子数的值（相关系数r  = 0.557 且P  < 0.001)，预测最大值为 135.5 ± 33.8。在第二种情况下，当前体是前一个周期的持续时间（r  = –0.686 和P  < 0.001）时，预测的最大值为 179.4 ± 18.2。两个预测都表明，太阳活动周期 25 将强于太阳活动周期 24，而弱于太阳活动周期 23。