Accurately predicting the distribution of emerging invasive species is crucial for early detection and eradication. While ecological niche models are often used to forecast invasions, such models are limited when invasive populations of a species have realized niches that differ from native populations, or when invasive populations are not at equilibrium. One technique to potentially overcome these challenges is to incorporate physiological responses of invaders to abiotic factors into ecological niche models, although few studies have assessed whether such approaches are effective. We addressed this by determining whether incorporating physiological data from life table analyses of an invasive insect, Drosophila suzukii, improved predictions of ecological niche models. Specifically, we tested whether models incorporating development time and survival rate from insect life tables improved predictions compared to a classical model without physiological data. We show that incorporating physiological responses of D. suzukii to temperature into our ecological niche models increased transferability of predictions from the native to the invasive range, while also reducing uncertainty of predictions. Moreover, physiological combined models performed best when equilibrium assumptions were violated. Our study suggests ecological niche models that incorporate data on physiological responses of invaders to abiotic factors provides a means to develop more effective and timely invasive pest distributional models.

中文翻译：

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昆虫生命表在优化侵入性害虫分布模型中的应用

准确预测新兴入侵物种的分布对于早期发现和根除至关重要。虽然生态位模型通常用于预测入侵，但当一个物种的入侵种群已经实现与本地种群不同的生态位时，或者当入侵种群不处于平衡状态时，这种模型是有限的。一种可能克服这些挑战的技术是将入侵者对非生物因素的生理反应纳入生态位模型，尽管很少有研究评估这种方法是否有效。我们通过确定是否结合来自入侵昆虫Drosophila suzukii 的生命表分析的生理数据来解决这个问题，改进了生态位模型的预测。具体来说，我们测试了与没有生理数据的经典模型相比，结合昆虫生命表中的发育时间和存活率的模型是否改进了预测。我们表明，将D. suzukii对温度的生理反应纳入我们的生态位模型，增加了从原生到侵入范围的预测的可转移性，同时也减少了预测的不确定性。此外，当违反平衡假设时，生理组合模型表现最佳。我们的研究表明，包含入侵者对非生物因素生理反应数据的生态位模型提供了一种开发更有效和及时的侵入性害虫分布模型的方法。