The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in elderly patients undergoing colorectal cancer surgery and to develop a risk score. This was an observational prospective cohort study. Individuals over 80 years diagnosed with colorectal cancer and treated surgically were recruited in 18 hospitals in the Spanish National Health Service, between June 2010 and December 2012, and were followed up 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected. The primary outcomes were mortality at 2 and between 2 and 5 years after the index admission. The predictors of mortality 2 years after surgery were haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl and colon locations (HR 1.02; CI 0.51–2.02), ASA class of IV (HR 3.55; CI 1.91–6.58), residual tumour classification of R2 (HR 7.82; CI 3.11–19.62), TNM stage of III (HR 2.14; CI 1.23–3.72) or IV (HR 3.21; CI 1.47–7), LODDS of more than − 0.53 (HR 3.08; CI 1.62–5.86)) and complications during admission (HR 1.73; CI 1.07–2.80). Between 2 and 5 years of follow-up, the predictors were no tests performed within the first year of follow-up (HR 2.58; CI 1.21–5.46), any complication due to the treatment within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 2.47; CI 1.27–4.81), being between 85 and 89 and not having radiotherapy within the second year of follow-up (HR 1.60; CI 1.01–2.55), no colostomy closure within the 2 years of follow-up (HR 4.93; CI 1.48–16.41), medical complications (HR 1.61; CI 1.06–2.44), tumour recurrence within the 2 years of follow-up period (HR 3.19; CI 1.96–5.18), and readmissions at 1 or 2 years of follow-up after surgery (HR 1.44; CI 0.86–2.41). We have identified variables that, in our sample, predict mortality 2 and between 2 and 5 years after surgery for colorectal cancer older patients. We have also created risks scores, which could support the decision-making process. ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT02488161 .

中文翻译：

---

预测老年患者结直肠癌术后 2 年和 5 年死亡率的风险评分

本研究的目的是确定接受结直肠癌手术的老年患者死亡率的预测因素并制定风险评分。这是一项观察性前瞻性队列研究。2010 年 6 月至 2012 年 12 月期间，西班牙国家卫生服务机构的 18 家医院招募了被诊断患有结直肠癌并接受手术治疗的 80 岁以上个体，并在术后 1、2、3 和 5 年进行了随访。收集了社会人口学和临床数据。主要结局是指数入院后 2 年和 2 至 5 年之间的死亡率。手术后 2 年死亡率的预测因素是血红蛋白 ≤ 10 g/dl 和结肠位置（HR 1.02；CI 0.51–2.02）、ASA IV 级（HR 3.55；CI 1.91–6.58）、R2 残留肿瘤分类（HR 7.82） ；CI 3.11–19.62），III 期 TNM（HR 2.14；CI 1.23–3。72) 或 IV (HR 3.21；CI 1.47–7)，LODDS 超过 − 0.53 (HR 3.08；CI 1.62–5.86)) 和入院期间的并发症（HR 1.73；CI 1.07–2.80）。在 2 至 5 年的随访期间，预测因子是在随访的第一年内未进行测试（HR 2.58；CI 1.21-5.46）、随访 2 年内因治疗引起的任何并发症（HR 2.47；CI 1.27–4.81），介于 85 和 89 之间，并且在随访的第二年内未进行放射治疗（HR 1.60；CI 1.01–2.55），在随访的 2 年内未闭合结肠造口（HR 4.93； CI 1.48–16.41）、医疗并发症（HR 1.61；CI 1.06–2.44）、2 年随访期内肿瘤复发（HR 3.19；CI 1.96–5.18）以及随访 1 或 2 年再次入院手术后（HR 1.44；CI 0.86–2.41）。我们已经确定了变量，在我们的样本中，预测结直肠癌老年患者手术后 2 年和 2 至 5 年的死亡率。我们还创建了风险评分，可以支持决策过程。ClinicalTrials.gov，NCT02488161。