Sea-level rise as a consequence of global warming increases the need to analyze coastal risks to conceive adaptation strategies aimed at coping with marine impacts at both short- and long-term scales. In this context, this study presents future scenarios of inundation risk evaluated along the main alluvial coastal plains of the Campania region (Italy). Due to their geomorphological and stratigraphical setting, the investigated areas are characterized by low topography and relevant but variable subsidence rates. Based on the upgrade of already published data and the new analysis of available datasets derived by multi-temporal interferometric processing of satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images, future scenarios of local sea level for the years 2065 and 2100 have been evaluated coupling global projections with local subsidence trends. Furthermore, aspects related with the distribution of natural and anthropic assets, as well as the local social vulnerability, have been taken into account to calculate the overall risk. The inundation risk maps here proposed can effectively address the request to improve the knowledge of policymakers and local administrators and to raise their awareness about the potential impacts of climate change in coastal areas.

全球变暖导致海平面上升，因此需要分析沿海风险，以制定旨在应对短期和长期海洋影响的适应战略。在此背景下，本研究介绍了沿坎帕尼亚地区（意大利）的主要冲积沿海平原评估的洪水风险的未来情景。由于其地貌和地层环境，调查区域的特点是低地势和相关但可变的沉降率。基于对已发布数据的升级和对通过卫星合成孔径雷达 (SAR) 图像的多时相干涉处理获得的可用数据集的新分析，已结合全球预测评估了 2065 年和 2100 年当地海平面的未来情景随着局部沉降趋势。此外，在计算总体风险时还考虑了与自然和人为资产分布以及当地社会脆弱性相关的方面。这里提出的淹没风险图可以有效地满足提高政策制定者和地方管理人员的知识并提高他们对沿海地区气候变化潜在影响的认识的要求。