Context

Agricultural intensification is being widely pursued as a policy option to improve food security and human development. Yet, there is a need to understand the impact of agricultural intensification on the provision of multiple ecosystem services, and to evaluate the possible occurrence of tipping points.

Objectives

1. I.

   To quantify and assess the long-term spatial dynamics of ecosystem service (ES) provision in a landscape undergoing agricultural intensification at four time points 1930, 1950, 1980 and 2015.

2. II.

   Determine if thresholds or tipping points in ES provision may have occurred and if there are any detectable impacts on economic development and employment.

Methods

We used the InVEST suite of software models together with a time series of historical land cover maps and an Input–Output model to evaluate these dynamics over an 85-year period in the county of Dorset, southern England.

Results

Results indicated that trends in ES were often non-linear, highlighting the potential for abrupt changes in ES provision to occur in response to slight changes in underlying drivers. Despite the fluctuations in provision of different ES, overall economic activity increased almost linearly during the study interval, in line with the increase in agricultural productivity.

Conclusions

Such non-linear thresholds in ES will need to be avoided in the future by approaches aiming to deliver sustainable agricultural intensification. A number of positive feedback mechanisms are identified that suggest these thresholds could be considered as tipping points. However, further research into these feedbacks is required to fully determine the occurrence of tipping points in agricultural systems.

中文翻译：

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农业集约化是否会导致生态系统服务的临界点？

语境

农业集约化作为改善粮食安全和人类发展的政策选择正在被广泛推行。然而，需要了解农业集约化对提供多种生态系统服务的影响，并评估可能出现的临界点。

目标

1. 一世。

   量化和评估在 1930 年、1950 年、1980 年和 2015 年四个时间点经历农业集约化的景观中生态系统服务 (ES) 提供的长期空间动态。

2. 二、

   确定 ES 条款中是否可能出现阈值或临界点，以及是否对经济发展和就业产生任何可察觉的影响。

方法

我们使用 InVEST 软件模型套件以及历史土地覆盖图的时间序列和输入-输出模型来评估英格兰南部多塞特郡 85 年来的这些动态。

结果

结果表明，ES 的趋势通常是非线性的，突出显示 ES 供应可能会因潜在驱动因素的轻微变化而发生突然变化。尽管不同 ES 的提供存在波动，但在研究期间，整体经济活动几乎呈线性增长，与农业生产力的提高一致。

结论

未来需要通过旨在实现可持续农业集约化的方法来避免 ES 中的此类非线性阈值。确定了许多正反馈机制，表明这些阈值可以被视为临界点。然而，需要进一步研究这些反馈，以完全确定农业系统中临界点的发生。